Washington — The Trump administration released an unsigned analysis on the Census Bureau’s website that alleges more than 24,000 illegal immigrants cast ballots in the 2020 presidential election. The claim, promoted by President Donald Trump on Truth Social, has been sharply criticized by former Census officials, statisticians and voting‑rights advocates as methodologically unsound.
Experts question the data and methods
John M. Abowd, who served as the bureau’s chief scientist from 2016 to 2022, told CNN that the statistical finding is too small to be distinguished from routine matching errors. He explained that record‑linking systems, even when well designed, can generate false positives. The 24,000 matches represent roughly 0.019% of the 128 million voter records examined, a figure that falls well within the expected error range.
Former Census Director Robert Santos, who resigned early in Trump’s second term, described the document as a “hijack by the White House,” noting that it lacked named authors and omitted the usual caveats about data quality. Santos warned that the analysis assumes federal, state and local records are perfectly accurate—a premise he called a “fatal flaw.” Voter files often contain outdated or incorrect information, a problem that may have been exacerbated during the COVID‑19 pandemic.
Limited impact on the election outcome
Even if the 24,000 alleged illegal‑immigrant votes were accurate, they would represent less than 0.02% of the roughly 160 million ballots cast in 2020. President Joe Biden’s popular‑vote margin exceeded seven million votes, and the alleged figure is far below the margins in the most closely contested states.
Because ballot selections are secret, the report cannot determine which candidates the alleged illegal‑immigrant voters supported. Election officials typically contact voters flagged as potentially ineligible to allow them to prove citizenship before any removal from the rolls.
Political pressure on the Census Bureau
The release comes amid growing concerns about political influence over the Census Bureau, an agency traditionally led by career statisticians and insulated from White House direction. Earlier this year, the administration placed analysts from the Trump‑aligned America First Policy Institute inside the bureau, according to three former officials.
Commerce Secretary Gina Lutnick, whose department oversees the Census, posted that the analysis is “just the beginning,” suggesting future reviews could reveal “tens of thousands of additional illegal voters.” The administration has also pursued broader efforts to identify alleged illegal‑immigrant voting, including a recent claim by Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin that more than 250,000 potential illegal‑immigrant registrations were found in four states—a figure some state officials disputed.
Calls for caution and transparency
Voting‑rights groups warned that the Census report could undermine public confidence in elections. Andrew Walchuk, policy director for Common Cause, called the analysis a “farce” intended to create a narrative favored by the president, not a reflection of reality.
Data‑Clear, the Virginia‑based firm that supplied voter registration data to the Census, said its contract, awarded in 2024 for $649,500, provided only dates of birth where available and did not include Social Security numbers. The firm’s president, Carolyn Carlson, said Data‑Clear had no control over how the Census analyzed the data.
University of Florida elections expert Michael McDonald cautioned that many of the 24,000 matches are likely U.S. citizens misidentified by the data‑linking process. He emphasized that such figures should be treated as allegations, not definitive proof.
Legal context
The Justice Department has sued 30 states seeking unredacted voter records, including driver’s license numbers and partial Social Security numbers, but courts have repeatedly rejected the requests, citing privacy protections.
Overall, former Census leaders and independent analysts agree that the report’s methodology and assumptions are insufficient to substantiate claims of widespread illegal‑immigrant voting, and that the numbers cited do not affect the outcome of the 2020 election.
Original reporting: KTVZ (Central Oregon) — read the source article.
