In São Paulo’s historic center, butcher Kleyton Zacarioto watches fewer customers drift through his shop each day. At 39, he blames a long stretch of rising food prices for squeezing his family’s budget and says he will not vote for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, even though he recalls the president’s early‑2000s achievements.
Economic indicators vs. everyday reality
Lula, now 80, points to record‑low unemployment, declining inequality and recent easing of inflation as proof that Brazil’s economy is improving. Yet a September Quaest poll finds nearly half of respondents say the economy has gotten worse over the past year, compared with only 19 % who say it has improved.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has built his campaign around the claim that wages no longer stretch to cover basic needs. He contrasts current supermarket prices with those during his father’s administration, arguing that families are still feeling the pinch.
Lula’s response
In a recent campaign video, Lula promised that inflation will stay under control and highlighted his own modest upbringing to connect with voters. His team has launched a “Market of Lies” website to dispute the opposition’s price claims and filed a complaint with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court accusing Bolsonaro’s campaign of misinformation.
With two weeks before the first round, Lula announced a 15 % increase in a flagship welfare program and an executive order to ban online betting starting October 6, hoping to boost disposable income. Polls, however, suggest these measures have not yet shifted voter sentiment.
Underlying pressures
Food inflation has slowed, and prices even fell between June and August, but years of steep increases keep costs well above pre‑pandemic levels. Household debt service, excluding mortgages, hit a record 26.6 % of income in June, driven by easy credit from fintech firms and a surge in online betting that siphons billions of reais from family budgets.
Brazil’s benchmark interest rate remains at 13.75 %, one of the world’s highest real rates, though the central bank is gradually lowering it while monitoring inflation.
Local voices echo national concerns
Market vendor Carlos Alves da Silva, who has run the Barraca do Juca produce stand for 15 years, says he doubts his business will survive past 2028 if Lula wins. “It’s just a matter of taking on debt and scrambling to pay it off the following month,” he told Reuters, supporting Senator Bolsonaro.
Conceição Melquiades, a shopper from Manaus, expressed frustration at rising electricity and grocery prices, saying she has not seen any “real proposals” from the candidates and doubts much will change.
Analysts weigh in
Political analyst Thomas Traumann noted that while macro data shows a “good government,” everyday Brazilians disagree. He likened the situation to President Joe Biden’s 2024 challenges in the United States, where positive economic numbers struggled to translate into voter confidence.
Pollster Felipe Nunes emphasized that voters judge the economy by their ability to pay bills, purchase goods, and achieve personal goals, not just by abstract statistics.
As the election approaches, the gap between improving labor‑market figures and the lived experience of many households remains a pivotal issue for both Lula and Bolsonaro, shaping the final stretch of Brazil’s presidential race.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
