Abuja – The World Bank released its newest Nigeria Development Update on Thursday, projecting that the nation’s economy will grow at an average annual rate of 4.4% through 2028. The forecast hinges on the continuation of recent reforms, including the removal of petrol subsidies and adjustments to the exchange rate, which have already boosted state revenues and opened space for greater spending on infrastructure, education and health care.
Reforms driving the outlook
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy Taiwo Oyedele highlighted that the reforms have helped stabilise the economy and set it on a path to faster, private‑sector‑led growth. “Our economy is expanding faster than the population,” Oyedele said at the event where the report was presented, noting that this dynamic should help reduce poverty if sustained.
The World Bank noted that state revenues rose roughly 93% in real terms between 2023 and 2025, a surge largely attributed to the removal of fuel subsidies and a more market‑responsive exchange‑rate regime. While the bank praised the revenue gains, it also urged state governments to improve spending efficiency and to invest more heavily in human capital to raise living standards.
Growth trends and inflation outlook
According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s economy grew 4.2% in the first half of 2026, up from 3.9% in 2025. The growth was driven primarily by services and agriculture, sectors that have shown resilience amid global headwinds. Inflation, which has been a persistent challenge, is projected to ease to around 12% by 2028, down from roughly 15% today.
Implications for Nigerians
If the projected growth materialises, the World Bank expects a gradual decline in poverty rates as higher economic output translates into more jobs and better public services. The bank’s analysis stresses that the quality of public‑sector spending will be crucial; efficient allocation to education, health and infrastructure can amplify the benefits of growth for ordinary families.
Oyedele reiterated the government’s commitment to a “job‑rich” growth model, emphasizing that private investment, especially in manufacturing and agribusiness, will be central to creating sustainable employment opportunities for the country’s youthful population.
Looking ahead
The World Bank’s outlook provides a cautiously optimistic picture for Nigeria, contingent on the government’s ability to maintain reform momentum and to manage public finances responsibly. Continued focus on human‑capital development and transparent, efficient spending will be key to turning projected growth into tangible improvements in the lives of Nigerians.
For more details, see the full World Bank Nigeria Development Update.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
