Recent satellite and transponder data indicate that the United States Navy is increasingly dominating the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran’s grip on the vital passage appears to be slipping.

Shipping patterns shift to Omani route

According to Kpler, a firm that tracks vessel movements, more than 80% of ship transits in the past two weeks have taken the UN‑authorized Omani channel. Iran has repeatedly condemned this route, yet most carriers are opting for it, relying on U.S. naval protection.

Iran’s toll collection stalled

Iran, which declares the strait under its control, has attacked dozens of vessels attempting the northern Oman coast. The shift in traffic has prevented Iran from collecting tolls it previously imposed in the spring. Although a Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran expired this week, allowing Iran to resume tolls, the data suggest the country has been unable to enforce them.

Regional oil shipments adapt

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have chartered Very Large Crude Oil Carriers (VLCCs) to move oil through the strait and then transfer it to tankers outside the danger zone in the Gulf of Oman. To avoid Iranian attacks, many operators have turned off transponders for weeks, creating “dark traffic” that is harder for traditional tracking services to monitor.

U.S. claims of control questioned

Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported combined oil flows—both through the strait and rerouted around it—averaging about 15 million barrels per day over a recent week, approaching the pre‑war average of 20 million barrels. President Donald Trump reiterated his claim that the United States has “total control over the strait,” though analysts note that Iran’s continued attacks and lower overall oil volumes indicate the situation remains contested.

Future negotiations

Oman and Iran are reportedly discussing ways to restore freedom of navigation without U.S. involvement, a development that has drawn criticism from the Trump administration. Experts caution that the outcome of those talks could further influence shipping patterns and control dynamics in the region.

Overall, the evidence points to a partial loss of Iranian authority over the Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. naval presence continues to shape the flow of global oil supplies.

Original reporting: El Paso News (HLL/CB) — read the source article.