New polling data indicates President Donald Trump is pulling ahead with three voter groups that have historically favored Democrats. Hispanic voters gave Trump 41% support, a six‑point rise since 2020, while 46% of young voters now back him, up ten points. Black voter support for Trump also increased, reaching 20%.
Democratic approval lagging among key groups
Despite the gains for Trump, Democrats have not fully reclaimed these constituencies. A Marquette University survey found two‑thirds of young Americans disapprove of Trump, and 56% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district. Hispanic respondents similarly expressed disapproval of the president, with 71% rating his performance negatively and 56% indicating they will support a Democrat in November.
Black voters remain less enthusiastic about the Democratic ticket. Only 69% say they will back a Democratic candidate, a drop of 21 points from President Biden’s 2020 share of the Black vote.
State‑level impacts and candidate battles
Democratic hopefuls in three battleground states are feeling the pressure. In Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff trails Biden’s 2020 Black‑voter support by about ten points; in North Carolina the gap is seven points; and in Texas State Representative James Talarico is roughly even with his 2020 baseline.
Michigan presents a different picture. A Fox News poll shows 75% of Black voters backing Democratic nominee Abdul El‑Sayed, though that is 18 points lower than Biden’s 2020 level. El‑Sayed’s far‑left platform may be contributing to the dip, as only 36% of Black respondents expressed a favorable view of the Democratic Socialists of America.
In the upcoming Senate race, former Rep. Mike Rogers leads El‑Sayed 51% to 47% in a Fox poll, within the margin of error. The race is now classified as a toss‑up. Meanwhile, Texas Senate candidate James Talarico is averaging 48% in recent polls, with his Republican opponent Ken Paxton at 46%.
Gubernatorial contests also tightening
Governor Greg Abbott of Texas holds a narrow 49% to 46% lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the latest polls, moving the race from solid Republican to likely Republican. In Alaska, the primary field of 17 candidates will narrow after tonight’s top‑four primary, with former Democratic legislator Tom Begich among the notable names.
Minnesota’s gubernatorial race shifted from solid Democratic to likely Democratic after former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya secured the Republican nomination and state House Speaker Lisa Demuth entered the race.
What the trends mean for voters
The data suggest that while Trump’s overall approval remains low, his relative standing among Hispanic, young and Black voters is improving, potentially reshaping the electoral map in several swing states. Democrats will need to address the concerns of these groups if they hope to maintain their traditional coalition heading into the November elections.
Original reporting: Fox News (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
