The anticipated Super El Niño, characterized by significantly higher-than-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, is expected to impact the Atlantic hurricane season. This phenomenon could be historic, potentially surpassing notable years such as 1982, 1997, and 2015. While El Niño typically brings strong wind shear and drier air, reducing the number of storms from Africa to the Caribbean, it doesn’t eliminate the risk of severe weather entirely.

Potential Local Impacts

Despite the overall suppression of hurricane activity, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a below-average season with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 of which could become hurricanes, and up to 1 to 3 major hurricanes. However, local residents should remain vigilant. Gulf water temperatures are already 1 to 3 degrees above normal, which can fuel storms developing close to home. Model guidance suggests increased ‘homegrown’ activity in the Gulf, Southeast Atlantic, and near Bermuda.

Historical Context and Preparedness

Historically, even during El Niño years, significant storms have impacted regions, as seen with hurricanes Audrey in 1957 and Betsy in 1965. Louisiana, in particular, has experienced major impacts during such seasons. While the classic Cabo Verde storms originating near Africa might be less frequent, the potential for rapidly developing systems closer to the U.S. coastline remains a concern.

Residents in affected areas are encouraged to stay informed and prepared for potential storms, as the warm Gulf waters could lead to unexpected developments. The combination of a Super El Niño and elevated Gulf temperatures creates a unique scenario where local vigilance is crucial.

Original reporting: 40/29 / KHBS (NW Arkansas) — read the source article.