Seattle’s Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD) program, promoted as a model for diverting people with substance‑use or mental‑health issues away from jail, is now under intense scrutiny after a Washington Policy Center (WPC) review found its celebrated success numbers were inaccurate.
Misleading statistics sparked federal support
Supporters of LEAD have long claimed the program cut recidivism by 58%, reduced felony charges by 39% and boosted employment odds by 46%. The WPC analysis, led by Director of Public Safety Solutions Policy Eric Zimmerman, says these figures were derived from a misreading of an abstract statistical measure, effectively doubling or tripling the program’s real impact.
“It turns out that you gave us numbers that were false in persuading us to do it. I think that’s a problem,” Zimmerman told The Center Square. He warned that dozens of city councils, state legislatures and the U.S. Congress have used the inflated data to justify tens of millions of dollars in public funding.
Program creators acknowledge the error
LEAD co‑creator Lisa Daugaard admitted the 58% figure was mischaracterized, clarifying that it represents a reduced likelihood of arrest compared with a control group, not an absolute drop in arrests. The University of Washington’s HaRRT Center, which conducted independent evaluations, reaffirmed that its original peer‑reviewed findings remain valid.
Congressional response and criticism
Rep. Suzan DelBene (D‑WA) cited the 60% reduction claim in a 2016 amendment to the CARA Act, helping secure additional federal dollars. While her office argues the program still has a proven track record, critics such as Andrea Suarez of We Heart Seattle argue that false numbers have diverted resources from more effective solutions.
Zimmerman has called on Congress to pause further LEAD funding until a thorough review is completed. “Hundreds of millions of dollars in public funds are at stake,” he said.
Public‑health perspective
Seattle & King County Public Health emphasizes a broader approach to overdose prevention, noting that fentanyl‑driven deaths remain among the nation’s highest. Officials stress that harm‑reduction measures must be paired with comprehensive treatment, housing, and employment services.
The debate highlights the tension between innovative diversion strategies and the need for accurate evidence to guide federal and state investment.
Original reporting: KTBS 3 (Shreveport) — read the source article.
