Paris – A recent poll by Toluna Harris Interactive, carried out between September 8 and September 10, shows France’s far‑right leader Marine Le Pen maintaining a clear lead in the upcoming 2027 presidential election. Depending on the scenario tested, Le Pen would capture between 33% and 36% of the vote in the first round.

Jean‑Luc Melenchon Holds Second‑Place Position

The poll places far‑left candidate Jean‑Luc Melenchon, head of the France Unbowed (LFI) party, in second place. In at least three of the five scenarios, Melenchon is projected to reach a runoff, and he ties for second in a fourth scenario. Le Pen is projected to defeat him comfortably in any runoff matchup.

Centre‑Right Candidate Trails Behind

Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, the sole centre‑right contender, appears ahead of Melenchon in only one scenario and ties with him in another. In the remaining scenarios, Philippe falls behind both Le Pen and Melenchon.

Political Landscape Shifts as Macron’s Term Ends

President Emmanuel Macron’s second and final term is concluding, and the poll notes a “hollowed‑out political centre” and a weak economy. These conditions appear to be creating space for more hard‑line parties such as National Rally and France Unbowed.

Historical Context of the Candidates

Both Le Pen and Melenchon have run for president three times previously (2012, 2017, 2022). Le Pen reached the runoff in 2017 and 2022 but was defeated by Macron each time. Melenchon, despite multiple campaigns, has never advanced to a second‑round ballot.

While the poll reflects current voter sentiment, it is a snapshot taken over a three‑day period and does not predict future shifts. The sample size, demographic breakdown, and margin of error were not disclosed in the release.

Analysts note that the polarization highlighted by the poll could influence campaign strategies as candidates vie for the support of undecided voters in the months ahead.

Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.