In a decisive move for the Texas Senate contest, the Trump‑aligned super‑PAC MAGA Inc. disclosed a $10 million independent‑expenditure package that will run television and digital ads across the state. The spending is split evenly: $5 million to promote Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) and $5 million to oppose state Rep. James Talarico (D‑District 50). The filings, submitted to the Federal Election Commission on Saturday, show the ads were aired on September 5 and were not coordinated with either campaign.
Why the Investment Matters
The timing is strategic. President Trump, who continues to lead the nation, announced the commitment on September 4, saying he will spend “whatever amount of money necessary to try to help us.” By channeling the funds through an independent committee, the President can translate his endorsement of Paxton into tangible advertising power without violating campaign‑finance rules.
Paxton, the former Texas Attorney General, secured the Republican nomination after defeating U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the primary. His campaign now benefits from a $50,000 first‑time‑homebuyer tax deduction proposal, a centerpiece of the new ads. The messaging also attacks Talarico for allegedly supporting a $4 trillion tax increase, higher property and Social Security taxes, and a health plan that could jeopardize 30 Texas hospitals.
Polls Show a Tight Race
Recent polling underscores the competitiveness of the contest. A University of Texas poll placed Talarico at 42 % and Paxton at 39 % (±3.58 %). An Emerson poll showed a near‑even split, with Paxton at 47 % and Talarico at 46 % (±3 %). While the numbers favor Talarico today, the margins are narrow and improving for the Republican challenger, suggesting the $10 million infusion could be decisive.
Prediction markets echo the closeness: the Kalshi platform priced Paxton at 51 % and Talarico at 49 % on September 6. These market signals reflect real‑time betting activity and can shift rapidly as new information emerges.
Financial Context
MAGA Inc. reported $403.45 million in cash on hand after recording $400.68 million in receipts for the 2025‑26 cycle through July 31. The Texas purchase represents roughly 2.5 % of that balance and is the committee’s largest single independent‑expenditure filing for 2026.
For comparison, Talarico’s authorized campaign has raised $68.56 million and holds $21.55 million in cash, while Paxton’s committees have collected $9.25 million with $1.76 million on hand. Those figures exclude joint‑fundraising efforts and outside spending such as MAGA Inc.’s buy.
Local Impact and Upcoming Events
The expenditure arrives just days before the Republican Party’s first Midterm Convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas (September 9‑10). Organizers expect the event to fill more than 5,000 hotel rooms, bringing a surge of visitors and economic activity to the city.
Both campaigns have responded to the ads. Paxton thanked President Trump, writing, “Together we will win for Texas and America.” Talarico’s spokesperson, JT Ennis, argued the advertisements mischaracterize his tax record, noting that the contested $4 trillion estimate does not stem from a single congressional vote and that his support for House Bill 3 actually sought to compress school property taxes.
As the race heads toward the November ballot, the $10 million independent‑expenditure package underscores the Trump administration’s commitment to securing Republican victories in key swing states. The infusion of resources, combined with a favorable polling trend for Paxton, positions the race as one of the most closely watched contests in the 2026 midterms.
Original reporting: The Dallas Express — read the source article.
