Washington — The Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up as the quietest on record, a result of an exceptionally strong El Niño that is tearing apart any nascent storms. No hurricanes have formed so far in 2026, and meteorologists say the next week is unlikely to bring any, even though this period normally marks the peak of activity.
Record‑low activity confirmed
According to the National Hurricane Center, only five relatively weak tropical storms have developed this year. On Saturday, the season set a new record for the longest start without a storm reaching 64 mph (103 kph) winds, a benchmark for hurricane classification, a record that dates back to the satellite era, said Nick Novella of the Weather Prediction Center.
Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach noted that the overall hurricane activity metric— which accounts for storm count, intensity, and duration— is at a post‑1950 record low. Current Atlantic storm activity stands at just 7 % of the climatological average for this time of year.
El Niño’s triple threat
Scientists attribute the lull to three classic El Niño impacts: strong upper‑level westerly winds, dry air that starves storms, and powerful low‑level easterly winds that shear storms apart. “It’s really staggering how inhospitable the Atlantic is to anything that could become a tropical cyclone right now,” said Kristen Corbosiero, an atmospheric science professor at the University at Albany.
Wind shear in the main storm‑forming region between Africa and the Caribbean is about 45 mph (74 kph) higher than what a tropical cyclone can tolerate, an unprecedented level, Corbosiero added. “Their heads are cut off before they even have a chance,” said University of Miami hurricane specialist Brian McNoldy.
Potential risks remain
Experts caution that a single storm can still cause catastrophic damage, pointing to the 1992 season that began slowly but produced the devastating Hurricane Andrew. The Gulf of Mexico, where wind shear has been lower, could still see stronger storms later in the season.
Despite record‑hot ocean temperatures— the world’s oceans have been unusually warm for over 100 days— the Atlantic’s surface waters have not warmed as quickly as the overlying atmosphere, reducing the heat flux that fuels hurricanes, explained MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel.
Pacific sees opposite trend
While the Atlantic remains quiet, the eastern Pacific is experiencing a surge in tropical cyclone activity, with storm counts nearly double normal and central Pacific activity about 40 % above average. “It’s just a party out there, one right after the other in the eastern Pacific,” Klotzbach observed.
Forecasters had predicted a subdued Atlantic season months ago, and the current observations confirm those forecasts. “I don’t think anyone really foresaw it being this quiet,” McNoldy said.
Original reporting: Alexandria, VA News – WTOP News — read the source article.
