Texas voters are showing remarkable enthusiasm in the early voting period for the upcoming November 3 election. As of Sunday, 23.4% of all registered voters – roughly 4.5 million people – have already cast a ballot or voted by mail, according to the Texas Secretary of State. While the rate is a fraction below the 24.3% recorded during the first seven days of early voting in 2018, it surpasses the turnout seen in the 2022 midterm cycle.
Early Numbers and Expert Outlook
Republican consultant and data analyst Derek Ryan expects the pace to accelerate as the early‑voting window closes on Friday. “We could see anywhere between maybe 20 to 30% of the votes that get cast in this election get cast on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday this week,” Ryan said. He projects total turnout could approach 10 million voters, putting the final participation rate near the 53% achieved in 2018.
Partisan Mix Remains Unclear
Because Texas does not register voters by party, the exact partisan composition of early voters is difficult to determine. Analysts rely on past primary participation and demographic trends to estimate. An early‑vote analysis found that 36% of ballots came from voters with a history of voting in Democratic primaries, slightly ahead of the 35% from Republican‑primary voters. About a quarter of early voters had only participated in general elections, while 4% had mixed primary histories.
Ryan noted that the early Democratic surge is “new territory” for the state, but he also emphasized that Republican turnout remains strong. “Their enthusiasm numbers and polls are not what the Democrats are, but that doesn’t mean they’re not going to show up,” said GOP strategist Vinny Minchillo, adding that Republicans are already seeing increased participation after the first days of early voting.
Democratic Optimism Balanced with Caution
Democratic strategist Matt Angle highlighted strong urban turnout and a relatively low share of rural early votes – less than 25% – as encouraging signs for his party. “If you’re looking at turnout based on where it’s coming from, voter history and the racial makeup, then Democrats are doing better,” Angle said, while also urging realism about the unknown final vote distribution.
Angle also pointed to growing Latino participation. Early data shows Hispanic voters made up 18% of early voters, two points higher than 2024 and three points above 2022. Democrats aim for Latino voters to represent about 24% of the final vote.
Record‑Setting County Turnout
Harris County, the state’s most populous, set a new early‑voting record with more than 127,000 ballots cast on the first day of the midterm period. Dallas County also broke its own record, with over 88,000 early votes on day one of any election.
Looking Ahead
Ryan will be watching the 2.1 million Texans who voted in recent Republican primaries but have not yet participated in the general election. “For Republicans to have any chance of victory, they’re going to need to see a significant number of that 2.1 million to show up to vote,” he said, noting that the picture will become clearer later this week.
Overall, the early‑voting figures suggest a highly engaged electorate in a non‑presidential election year. With a record 19 million Texans now registered to vote – a 7.7% increase since the 2022 midterms – the state is poised for a competitive and participatory election.
Original reporting: Texas Tribune (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
