The US labor market has been largely frozen for the past 18 months due to rampant uncertainty, a lasting hangover from pandemic-era overhiring, and economic concerns such as high inflation and elevated interest rates. However, for the past few months, it has been looking like a thaw is underway, with US employment growth surpassing expectations and adding an average of 188,000 jobs per month since March.

Key Metrics to Watch

The June jobs report, set to be released on Thursday, will provide important clues as to how much the labor market is heating back up. Key metrics to watch include total payroll growth and the unemployment rate, which have been the headliners for a reason, providing a quick snapshot of economic conditions.

In May, the economy added an estimated 172,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% for the third month in a row. FactSet’s consensus estimates have June’s job gains at 100,000 and the jobless rate extending its 4.3% streak by another month.

Joe Brusuelas, RSM US’ senior economist, is expecting 180,000 jobs added and for the unemployment rate to dip to 4.2%, likely indicating an improvement of economic health. Three factors are impacting that outlook: a pickup in hiring in goods-producing and construction businesses, sustained growth in healthcare jobs, and a largely World Cup-driven lift in transportation and leisure and hospitality employment.

Workers’ pay gains have slowed from their pandemic hiring frenzy highs and are running at an annual rate of 3.4%, roughly what was seen in the summer of 2019. However, prices are rising at more than double the rate then, and inflation is well outpacing wage growth.

Original reporting: KRDO (Colorado Springs metro) — read the source article.