WYOMING — Researchers from the University of Wyoming have released a new climate‑impact study that could reshape the future of ski tourism in the Rocky Mountains. Lead author Pramod Adhikari, a scientist with UW’s Department of Atmospheric Science, says the findings point to Jackson Hole Mountain Resort (JHMR) and Grand Targhee Resort as likely “ski refuges” as warming trends threaten snow reliability at many western ski areas.
Study methodology and risk categories
The paper, titled “Charting resilience at Rocky Mountain ski areas as winters shrink,” was published in early September in NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science. The team analyzed historic climate data from 98 ski resorts across the Western United States spanning 1990‑2024, incorporating snow and weather observations from nearby SNOTEL sites. Using a physics‑based computer model, they simulated historic conditions and projected future climate scenarios from 2032‑2066.
From the model, the researchers assigned each of the 36 Rocky Mountain resorts to one of four risk categories—low, moderate, high, or extreme—based on an index that blends natural snow viability, snow‑making capacity, and the impact of rain on snowpack. As Adhikari explained, the risk score is not a probability of closure but a comparative measure of climate‑related pressures.
Key findings for Wyoming and the broader region
The dataset includes 18 Colorado resorts, 11 in Utah, four in Wyoming, and three in Montana. Wyoming’s entries are JHMR, Grand Targhee, Snowy Range Ski Area, and White Pine Resort. The study shows that resorts with the most natural snow—such as Grand Targhee, Alta (Utah), and Snowmass (Colorado)—are expected to see the smallest reductions in natural ski days.
Conversely, resorts like Sundance, Park City, and Deer Valley (all in Utah) face the largest increase in risk scores due to more warm days and fewer natural‑snow days. On average, the model predicts a 25% reduction in natural ski days during the Thanksgiving period and a 6% reduction over the Christmas period across all resorts.
Jackson Hole and Grand Targhee: moderate risk, strong outlook
According to the projections, JHMR and Grand Targhee will move from low to moderate risk over the coming decades. While they are not immune to warming, their relatively high elevations and historically favorable snow conditions give them an advantage. “They are affected by warming, but because they start with relatively favorable snow and temperature conditions in the Jackson Hole area, they may retain better ski conditions than other popular ski areas,” Adhikari noted.
The study employed the Rocky Mountain 1.3 (RM1.3) climate model, which offers a high‑resolution 1.3‑kilometer grid—crucial for capturing the dramatic climate variations that can occur over short distances in mountainous terrain. RM1.3 forecasts that the Rocky Mountain region will warm faster than the global average and faster than the Pacific Northwest, yet the overall impact on ski‑season length and snow‑making potential is projected to be less severe than in the Pacific Northwest or Sierra Nevada.
Implications for the local economy and families
For families and businesses that depend on winter tourism, the study’s outlook offers a measure of optimism. If Jackson Hole and Grand Targhee can maintain more reliable snow conditions, they may attract skiers displaced from other resorts, bolstering local economies and preserving jobs tied to the ski industry. The researchers stress that continued investment in snow‑making infrastructure and responsible land‑use planning will be essential to maximize the refuges’ potential.
“The Rocky Mountain region will be the ski refuge that people will be traveling for more … because the impact is less than in the Pacific Northwest or the Sierra Nevada,” Adhikari said, describing the findings as “positive news for the Rocky Mountain areas.”
Original reporting: Buckrail (Jackson WY) — read the source article.
