US stocks are set to close out a solid first half of the year, with the benchmark S&P 500 up more than 7% so far in 2026. However, the market has had a rougher time in June, with high-flying shares of semiconductor companies seeing huge moves as investors calibrate their optimism over AI-driven profits.
Jobs Data and Interest Rate Hikes
A Federal Reserve meeting this month revealed policymakers were focused on containing inflation. Investors said the monthly jobs report due on Thursday could increase bets on rate hikes if it indicates a hot economy. The US economy has posted three straight months of solid job gains, with payrolls rising by 172,000 in May. June employment is expected to rise by 135,000 jobs, according to Jefferies economists.
The Fed is very finely balanced, and even if the jobs data is not a big surprise, it can tilt the Fed in one direction or the other. If jobs are strong, interest rates could go back up, and that challenges the market. Fed funds futures are indicating better than even odds of a hike by the central bank’s September meeting, according to LSEG data on Thursday, a reversal from the start of the year when investors were banking on equity-friendly rate cuts by year-end.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
