US job growth is expected to have slowed to a still-solid clip in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3% for a fourth straight month, consistent with a stable labor market. The anticipated moderation would follow three consecutive months of strong and above-expectations gains in nonfarm payrolls.

Labor Market Trends

Economists expected the Labor Department’s closely watched employment report to keep a September interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve on the table amid rising inflation from the U.S.-led war with Iran. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 110,000 jobs last month after rising 172,000 in May, a Reuters survey of economists predicted.

Despite facing uncertainties stemming from tariffs and the Middle East conflict, companies have been reluctant to let go of workers, after struggling to find labor in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. The strength in payrolls has not been mirrored in other labor market surveys, including hiring plans by small businesses.

Expert Insights

“A few months ago, I was actually worried because we had lost jobs in five months,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade Americas. “We’ve seen the labor market firm up over the past three months, and I don’t see any particular imbalance. We’re in this very tiresome phrase of ‘no hire, no fire’ labor market.”

The labor market is generating wage growth at a steady pace, with average hourly earnings forecast to increase 3.5% year-on-year in June after rising 3.4% in May. The lack of wage inflation has led some economists to argue that the Fed does not need to tighten monetary policy.

Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.