Jacksonville, Fla. – With just two weeks left until the November 5 midterm election, a new poll from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab indicates that the once‑comfortable leads for Republican candidates in Florida’s top races have narrowed.

Governor’s race: Donalds maintains a slim lead

The poll surveyed 1,471 likely voters by phone between Oct. 12 and Oct. 19. It shows Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds ahead of Democrat David Jolly by two percentage points. In July, Donalds enjoyed a five‑point advantage, so the gap has tightened.

Party loyalty remains strong: 11% of registered Republicans said they would vote for Jolly, while only 5% of Democrats indicated support for Donalds. Among Independents, Jolly leads Donalds by 16 points.

U.S. Senate race: Moody still ahead

Republican Ashley Moody retains a four‑point lead over Democrat Angie Nixon of Jacksonville. The July poll gave Moody an eight‑point edge, indicating a modest contraction.

Support among party lines is similarly pronounced. Ten percent of registered Republicans expressed willingness to back Nixon, and eight percent of Democrats said they would vote for Moody. Independents favor Nixon by 15 points.

Turnout could decide the outcomes

Sean Freeder, a political‑science professor and faculty director of the research lab, warned that “particularly strong turnout by Democrats would make Jolly slightly favored and Nixon more competitive.” Conversely, “if Republicans are more enthusiastic than expected, Moody and Donalds could have more comfortable victories.”

Given the poll’s margin of error of ±2.81 points, either candidate could plausibly win, Freeder noted.

Issue‑specific trust ratings

When asked which gubernatorial candidate they trust most on specific issues, respondents favored Jolly on data‑center policy (41% to 37%) and were almost evenly split on affordability and cost‑of‑living concerns (Jolly 43%, Donalds 42%). Donalds led on property‑insurance trust (43% to 38%).

Impact of campaign messaging

Twenty‑five percent of respondents said Republican campaign messaging about Nixon’s alleged ties to the Democratic Socialists of America made them less likely to vote for her; 12% said it made them more likely, and 55% said it had no effect. Among Nixon’s supporters, 23% reported a positive effect from the messaging, while 6% said it hurt their support.

Regarding Ashley Moody, 30% of all poll participants said Democratic messaging linking her to the Hope Florida grand‑jury report reduced their likelihood of voting for her. Among Moody’s backers, 15% said the messaging hurt them, 14% said it helped, and 64% said it made no difference.

Constitutional Amendment 3

When asked about Constitutional Amendment 3, which would raise the homestead property‑tax exemption for non‑school taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 (adjusted for inflation thereafter), 50% said they would vote “yes.” The amendment requires a 60% supermajority to pass, so it remains uncertain.

Opposition comes from groups such as Florida sheriffs and the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, who argue the tax cut could strain city and county budgets. Thirty percent of respondents said they would vote “no,” while 14% were unsure.

Looking ahead

Freeder summed up the competitive nature of both races: “Like Donalds, Moody appears to be in a competitive race, though one that leans more decisively in her favor. Independents favor Nixon by 15 points and also appear more concerned about Moody’s ties to Hope Florida than Nixon’s ties to socialism.” He added that “the anti‑incumbent mood of swing voters means both Donalds’ and Moody’s success depends upon Republicans not falling too far behind Democrats in turnout and enthusiasm.”

Original reporting: Jacksonville Today — read the source article.