Washington – A new CNN analysis shows that users between 18 and 21 have moved about $5.4 billion on the Kalshi prediction‑market platform so far in 2026. That volume represents roughly 3.1% of the platform’s total trading activity, according to a Kalshi spokesperson.
Prediction markets, which are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as financial exchanges, are legally open to anyone 18 and older. This federal framework was established under the Trump administration, allowing these platforms to operate outside of state gambling laws that typically set the betting age at 21.
State and tribal challenge
Dozens of state attorneys general, a coalition of Indian tribes, and the American Gaming Association have filed a lawsuit seeking to overturn the 18‑plus rule. They argue that the platforms act as a backdoor to sports‑betting for minors, exposing young adults to the same risks faced by gamblers in state‑licensed sportsbooks.
“Most parents and grandparents don’t realize that the ‘prediction markets’ are offering a backdoor into sports‑betting in jurisdictions where the legal betting age is 21,” said Bill Miller, president of the American Gaming Association. “This means their freshman son or daughter can simply pull out a phone and place a wager on a football game.”
Industry response
Kalshi points to internal safeguards, including deposit limits and automated warnings for users showing risky behavior. The company also contributed $2 million to the National Council for Problem Gambling to address concerns about addiction.
Other platforms are taking a different approach. Fanatics launched a 21‑plus prediction platform last year, and newcomer Novig received CFTC approval in June with a strict 21‑plus policy. Novig’s CEO Jacob Fortinsky told CNN that the company wants to be a “good steward in the prediction space” and avoid encouraging “irresponsible trading behavior” among college‑age adults.
Regulatory backdrop
The CFTC has so far rejected calls from the NCAA, NFL, NBA, PGA Tour and other leagues to raise the minimum trading age. Federal regulators are finalizing rules that keep the 18‑plus standard, citing the legality of 18‑year‑olds trading stocks and other CFTC‑regulated products.
Legal experts note that the lawsuit could force a reevaluation of how prediction markets are classified—whether as financial exchanges or de‑facto sportsbooks. If courts side with the states, the industry could face new licensing requirements, state taxes, and stricter age verification.
What this means for families
Parents of college‑age children are being urged to monitor online activity closely. While the platforms are not traditional casinos, the line between financial speculation and gambling is increasingly blurred for younger users.
“We want to protect our kids from the same harms that come with gambling,” said a concerned parent from Texas, who asked not to be named. “If the law says 21, then that should be the rule everywhere.”
The outcome of the lawsuit will likely shape the future of prediction‑market regulation and could set a precedent for how other emerging financial‑technology products are overseen.
Original reporting: El Paso News (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
