According to recent polling, Democratic nominee James Talarico has a slight lead over Republican nominee Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race. Talarico’s lead is notable, as it surpasses the leads Democratic nominee Beto O’Rourke had in 2018 when he nearly beat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.

Understanding Polls

To understand the polls, it’s essential to consider several factors, including the quality of the polls, sample size, and partisan sponsors. The American Association for Public Opinion Research advises that polls sponsored by a candidate or party should be viewed with skepticism. Nonpartisan polling organizations typically release all their polling results, whereas candidate-sponsored or party-affiliated surveys may only release results that benefit their campaigns.

Pollsters use different methodologies to determine sample sizes and types. The sample size is crucial, as larger samples are generally more reliable. Polls can survey adults, registered voters, or likely voters, with each group having its strengths and weaknesses. The sampling method is also important, with probability-based samples being considered more reliable than non-probability-based samples.

The average of the polls is calculated by weighting each poll based on recency, sample size, and partisan affiliation. Recent polls are given more weight, as they are more reflective of current sentiment. Polls with larger sample sizes are also given more weight, and polls sponsored by a political party are given half the weight of nonpartisan polls.

Original reporting: Texas Tribune (HLL/CB) — read the source article.