A recent national investigation confirms what election officials have long said: voter fraud is exceedingly rare. The study identified 513 proven cases of fraud since 2016, a tiny fraction of the over 685 million votes cast during that period.
Supreme Court blocks Trump’s mail‑ballot proposal
The U.S. Supreme Court this week effectively halted President Trump’s effort to require specialized ballot envelopes and the collection of sensitive voter information for mail‑in ballots. By declining to lift a lower‑court injunction, the Court left the rule frozen with the midterm elections only weeks away. This means states can continue sending out ballots the same way they have for years, a method that accounts for roughly one‑third of all votes.
What the numbers show
The Hearst Television National Investigative Unit compiled its database from public case trackers, court records and news reports. Their count of 513 proven fraud cases represents an increase of 103 cases since the team’s 2024 tally, but still reflects a minuscule share of total votes. Mail‑in or absentee ballots were linked to about 202 of those cases—roughly 40 percent of the fraud instances—yet that remains a negligible number given the volume of ballots processed.
Expert perspective
Michael McNulty, senior policy director for Issue One and former international election monitor, said the data underscores how rare fraud is in the United States. “If you do the odds, it’s less than the odds of being struck by lightning,” he noted. He added that proving a systemic problem would require evidence of coordinated, high‑level effort, which the data does not show.
Geographic distribution
The five states with the highest share of proven fraud cases were Florida (nearly 12 %), North Carolina (about 11 %), California, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, each accounting for between four and seven percent of the total. The overwhelming majority of individuals convicted—85 %—were U.S. citizens, and more than half of the cases occurred during general elections when voter turnout is highest.
Impact on elections
Only 15 of the 513 cases led to an official order for a new election or an overturning of results, and all but one involved local or statewide contests with relatively small vote margins. McNulty warned that exaggerated claims of fraud can erode public confidence, even when the system is demonstrably sound.
As the nation heads toward the November midterms, the data reinforces President Trump’s administration’s push for stricter mail‑ballot rules, while the courts maintain the status quo, allowing the proven integrity of the voting process to continue guiding American democracy.
Original reporting: 40/29 / KHBS (NW Arkansas) — read the source article.
