Latvian intelligence is warning that Russia is preparing possible military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland, including drones, missiles or other hybrid attacks, in an effort to pressure NATO countries to stop supporting Ukraine.

Russia’s Hybrid War

According to Latvian intelligence, Russia’s goal is not to start a conventional war, but to send a signal to NATO countries to stop supporting Ukraine. The most immediate concern is that Russian President Vladimir Putin could miscalculate due to distorted assessments from his own institutions.

The Baltic states and Poland are NATO allies, meaning a Russian provocation there could quickly test America’s treaty commitments and risk a broader confrontation. Latvian intelligence argues that Putin is not only looking for ways to pressure NATO countries to back off Ukraine, but may also be receiving distorted assessments from inside his own system — raising the risk that Russia could misjudge Western resolve.

Western Sanctions

Despite Moscow’s public claims that sanctions do not matter, Latvian intelligence believes that Western sanctions are having a real impact inside Russia. The sanctions limit Russia’s financial resources and opportunities, forcing difficult choices regarding recruitment, military spending, and pressure on businesses.

Original reporting: Fox News (HLL/CB) — read the source article.