Washington — A nonprofit research group, the Anti‑Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), has identified more than 150 wallets on the Polymarket International platform that may have traded on inside U.S. military information. The analysis, first reported by Reuters, highlights a pattern of “Orca” traders—wallets that open an account, place a large, long‑shot bet in a niche market, and then cash out quickly.
How the study was conducted
ACDC examined every settled market on Polymarket through May 5, looking for long‑shot wagers of at least $2,500 placed within an hour on outcomes with odds of 35 percent or less. Within that universe, the group identified 556 wallets it labeled “Orcas,” a reference to the killer whale’s precise hunting tactics.
Of those, 152 wallets focused on military and defense‑related markets. Collectively, those wallets earned about $8 million, with an average win rate of 97.2 percent. While ACDC cautions that luck may explain some success, the concentration of high‑profit bets in defense topics suggests an informational edge.
Potential insider trading and national‑security concerns
The report notes that trading on confidential government information is generally illegal. More troubling, the study found that successful Orca bets often attracted “copycat” activity from deep‑pocketed traders—referred to as “Whales”—and automated bots. For example, when an Orca placed a bet on a U.S. strike in Iran hours before the June 2025 operation, a bot and a whale placed copycat wagers of $200,000 and $100,000 respectively.
ACDC co‑founder David Szakonyi warned that such observable betting patterns could be monitored by foreign‑intelligence agencies, potentially exposing U.S. operational plans.
Polymarket’s response and regulatory backdrop
Polymarket, founded in 2020, declined to comment directly but maintains that it monitors for suspicious activity and has referred dozens of wallets to authorities, including the case of a soldier accused of using classified information to bet on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is currently seeking jurisdiction over prediction markets and has indicated it will enforce strict rules against misconduct. To date, the regulator has brought charges in at least three cases involving prediction‑market fraud.
Calls for stronger safeguards
ACDC argues that requiring traders to verify their identity and withholding payouts on suspicious bets would be insufficient. The group recommends banning markets where non‑public information can be profitably exploited, stating that limiting participation or relying solely on law‑enforcement investigations will not fully mitigate the risk.
While the study does not prove illegal activity in every case, it underscores the need for greater transparency and oversight of prediction markets that could serve as inadvertent channels for the dissemination of sensitive defense information.
What this means for the public
For everyday investors, the findings serve as a reminder that high‑risk, high‑reward bets on prediction platforms may be influenced by information not available to the broader market. For policymakers, the report adds pressure to clarify the regulatory framework governing these digital betting venues and to ensure that national‑security interests are protected.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
