In North Carolina, a new study commissioned by Susan B. Anthony Pro‑Life America shows that targeted messaging on the abortion issue is moving voters toward Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley. The research, conducted by the consulting firm Evolving Strategies, tested four different pro‑life messages on a panel of 2,607 confirmed registered voters.
Study design and methodology
Participants were randomly assigned to receive one of four messages – a “Fed” message criticizing former Gov. Roy Cooper’s support for federal abortion legislation, a “Record” message focusing on his gubernatorial abortion record, a “Soft Positive” message highlighting Whatley’s pro‑life stance, or a “Hard Positive” message emphasizing the same but with stronger language. A control group read a neutral placebo message.
The online panel was recruited using voter‑file matching and consumer‑data techniques, allowing the researchers to align respondents with actual voter records. After reading the assigned message, participants reported their candidate preference and policy support.
Key findings
All four messages shifted the Republican vote margin upward, but the two messages that attacked Cooper performed best. The “Fed” message produced a net gain of +4.9 points for Whatley, while the “Record” message added +3.2 points. Among the positive messages, the “Hard Positive” message moved the margin +3.9 points, compared with +1.7 points for the “Soft Positive” message.
When the study focused on the most persuadable voters – those identified through predictive modeling as likely to switch their vote – the impact could be even larger, potentially moving the Republican margin by +12 points or more.
Pro‑life group’s outreach strategy
Susan B. Anthony Pro‑Life America reports that it has reached more than 770,000 households across the state with its new ground‑game. Canvassers are targeting persuadable and low‑turnout voters, delivering door‑to‑door visits, digital communications, and other outreach methods. President of the organization, Marjorie Dannenfelser, said the group’s goal is to identify voters based on how their vote can be moved, not on party affiliation, religion, or location.
“When it comes to the life issue, the issue that works best in North Carolina for the Senate race is that Gov. Cooper vetoed the 12‑week limit, which is wildly popular in North Carolina and across the country, to stop abortion at the first trimester,” Dannenfelser told Fox News Digital. “He vetoed it and then his veto was overridden. It was a very unpopular move that really moves voters.”
Political context
The race is shaping up to be one of the nation’s most competitive Senate contests as Republicans seek to retain their majority in the Upper Chamber. The seat is currently held by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Cooper, the Democratic nominee and former governor, vetoed North Carolina’s 2023 law that banned most abortions after 12 weeks, arguing it would harm women and families. The Republican‑controlled General Assembly later overrode his veto, allowing the law to take effect.
The study’s findings suggest that highlighting Cooper’s abortion record – especially his support for federal legislation that could pre‑empt state limits – resonates strongly with North Carolina voters. The pro‑life group plans to continue its outreach as the election approaches, focusing on the messages that proved most effective in the trial.
Implications for the campaign
Campaign strategists on both sides are likely to take note of the data. For the Republican campaign, the results validate a focus on abortion as a winning issue in a state where recent polls show strong public support for limiting abortions. For the Democratic side, the findings underscore the need to address the abortion narrative more proactively, perhaps by emphasizing other policy priorities or reframing the discussion around personal liberty and family values.
As the election draws nearer, both campaigns will intensify their voter‑contact efforts. The pro‑life group’s aggressive ground game, combined with data‑driven messaging, could prove decisive in a race that may ultimately determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.
Original reporting: Fox News (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
