LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — A recent statewide poll conducted by Talk Business & Politics in partnership with Hendrix College shows Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner holding a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Senator Tom Cotton. The poll, which surveyed 1,217 likely Arkansas voters on Aug. 11‑12, recorded Shoffner at 47.4 percent support and Cotton at 44 percent.
Margin of error and demographic breakdown
The 3.4‑point advantage for Shoffner is smaller than the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 points, meaning the results do not establish a definitive leader. Libertarian candidate Jeff Wadlin captured nearly 3 percent of the vote, while about 5.6 percent of respondents remained undecided.
When the data are sliced by party affiliation, Shoffner received near‑universal backing from Democrats, whereas Cotton secured 82 percent of Republican respondents. Among independent voters, Shoffner led 59 percent to 29 percent.
Gender, age and education trends
The poll also revealed clear splits along gender, age and education lines. Women favored Shoffner 51 percent to 41 percent, while men leaned toward Cotton 47 percent to 44 percent. Voters with a college degree gave Shoffner a 63‑29 advantage; voters without a degree favored Cotton 51 percent to 40 percent.
Older voters continued to support Cotton. Among those 65 and older, Cotton led by 22 points, earning 57 percent of that group’s support. Voters aged 45‑64 were evenly split, and Shoffner performed strongly among voters younger than 45.
Context and analysis
Roby Brock, editor‑in‑chief of Talk Business & Politics, described the race as competitive but fluid, noting that months of campaigning and potentially substantial spending remain ahead. The organization plans to continue polling the contest until early voting begins.
Robert Coon, managing partner of Impact Management Group, which advises Republican candidates, and Jay Barth, a Hendrix College emeritus professor active in Democratic politics, helped develop and analyze the poll. Both linked Cotton’s performance to voters’ opinions of former President Donald Trump. Forty‑eight percent of respondents said they strongly disapproved of Trump’s job performance, and Shoffner received 94 percent support from that group.
Coon said Cotton remains strong in rural portions of Arkansas, noting that county‑level results do not yet show Shoffner gaining a rural advantage from her campaign’s focus on farming and agricultural issues. Barth emphasized that Shoffner’s lead among Democrats and nearly two‑to‑one advantage among independents are driving her narrow statewide edge, while Cotton retains advantages among older voters, men and voters without college degrees.
Methodology
Responses were collected by text message and weighted slightly for ethnicity, education, gender and geography. The poll’s stated margin of error applies to the overall sample; results involving smaller demographic groups are less precise.
The race remains one of the most closely watched contests in the 2026 election cycle, with both campaigns expected to increase outreach and advertising as Arkansas heads toward the November ballot.
Original reporting: NEA Report (Jonesboro) — read the source article.
