The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a new advisory this week indicating that the El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean this year is highly likely to become “very strong.” According to the Climate Prediction Center, the probability of a very strong El Niño exceeds 90 percent, with a 95 percent chance of reaching that intensity during the October‑December period.
What defines a “very strong” El Niño?
An El Niño is characterized by warmer‑than‑average sea‑surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. When the temperature anomaly rises above 2.0 °C for a sustained period, the event is classified as “very strong.” The current El Niño measured a +1.0 °C anomaly for the three‑month period ending in July, placing it in the moderate range, but the latest forecasts project a rapid intensification.
Historical context
Since 1980, only four El Niño episodes have been rated very strong. The most recent occurred from 2015 to 2016 and was associated with notable weather disruptions worldwide. Very strong El Niños typically persist for nine to twelve months, influencing climate patterns well beyond the Pacific basin.
Potential impacts for the United States
El Niño events tend to shift weather patterns across the country. Forecasters expect warmer and drier conditions in the northern United States, while the southern states may experience above‑average rainfall. These shifts can affect agriculture, water resources, and seasonal planning for businesses and families alike.
How the forecast is made
The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook is based on a combination of satellite observations, ocean buoy data, and computer models that simulate ocean‑atmosphere interactions. The advisory notes a 69 percent chance that this El Niño will be stronger than any recorded since 1950 during the October‑December window.
What residents can do
While the El Niño itself is a natural climate phenomenon, its downstream effects can be mitigated through preparedness. Farmers may adjust planting schedules, municipalities might review water‑conservation plans, and families can stay informed about local weather advisories as the season progresses.
NOAA will continue to monitor sea‑surface temperatures and update the public as new data become available. Residents are encouraged to follow local weather services for the latest guidance.
Original reporting: 40/29 / KHBS (NW Arkansas) — read the source article.
