In an interim analysis released on August 19, Moderna and Merck reported that their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, used alongside Merck’s immunotherapy Keytruda, lowered the risk of melanoma returning or spreading in a late‑stage trial. The statistical significance of the findings exceeded analysts’ expectations, prompting a sharp rise in Moderna’s stock price—up almost 90%—and a modest 10% gain for Merck.
Analyst reactions
RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh said the data’s strength must have been compelling to achieve significance at the interim stage, suggesting a broader positive impact on the companies’ oncology pipelines. Citi analyst Geoffrey Meacham cautioned that detailed metrics such as recurrence‑free survival, distant metastasis‑free survival, hazard ratios, and confidence intervals will be needed to fully assess the clinical and commercial value of the vaccine.
Jefferies analyst Andrew Tsai projected a market entry in 2027, noting the potential for multi‑billion‑dollar peak sales in melanoma alone if the product gains a majority market share, especially outside the United States. Etoro market strategist Lale Akoner highlighted the share‑price reaction as a confidence boost for investors, while also warning that full trial data, overall‑survival results, and the scalability of personalized vaccine manufacturing remain uncertain.
What’s next
The companies have not yet released the complete data set, and overall‑survival outcomes are still pending. Investors and observers will be watching for the final clinical readout, regulatory filings, and evidence that the personalized vaccine platform can be applied to other cancers.
Reporting by Mrinalika Roy and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; editing by Shilpi Majumdar.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
