The moment of truth is approaching for Middle Eastern countries that shut off their oil wells during the war. The Strait of Hormuz has reopened, and these countries are about to turn their valves back on to find out what they’ve got.

Potential Outcomes

It could be a gusher, or if President Donald Trump’s predictions were accurate, a series of underground explosions could cause the oil wells to deliver a trickle. However, this is highly unlikely. The oil industry is well-equipped to handle shut-ins and restarts, and Iran has plenty of experience dealing with them.

When oil wells are shut in, the pressure underground can become imbalanced, deforming the underlying structure. Those changes can damage reservoirs, which can create similar problems for nearby wells, too. Water can seep in, reducing the well’s potential output. Extended downtime can also damage equipment, and in rare cases, explosions can occur.

Restarting Production

Restarting production at the end of the war isn’t like flipping a switch, either. The problem just works in reverse. Production will need to be restarted slowly, over several weeks, to ensure crude reservoirs don’t collapse, requiring re-drilling and substantial repairs.

Producers will have to balance underground pressure as they inject water and gas into wells to extract the oil. Because wells in the region are large and close to one another, restarting production will require significant coordination across companies and countries to ensure consistent pressure across multiple wells.

Original reporting: El Paso News (HLL/CB) — read the source article.