A University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co‑sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, shows a dramatic shift in the Los Angeles mayoral race as the election approaches. The online survey, conducted Oct. 19‑25 among 2,197 likely city voters, reports both incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and challenger Nithya Raman at 40% support.
Undecided voters shrink dramatically
The poll indicates that only 19% of respondents remain undecided, a steep decline from the 33% undecided rate recorded in the late‑September poll. This reduction in the pool of swing voters appears to have driven Bass’s surge from 28% in September to a tie with Raman.
Conservative voters swing toward Bass
According to poll director Mark DiCamillo, the drop in undecided voters was especially pronounced among conservative voters who previously backed reality‑TV star Spencer Pratt in the June primary. In the September poll, 22% of Pratt supporters said they would vote for Bass and 16% for Raman, while 63% were still undecided. The latest figures show 41% of Pratt voters now planning to back Bass, compared with just 14% for Raman, and 45% still undecided.
What the numbers mean for the race
The tie at 40% suggests a highly competitive final stretch to Election Day, scheduled for early November. Both campaigns will likely focus on the remaining undecided voters, especially those who have not yet committed after the primary. The poll’s margin of error is about three percentage points, meaning the actual support levels could vary slightly, but the overall trend of a closing gap is clear.
Historical context
Mayor Bass has never lost an election for public office, according to DiCamillo. Her record of electoral success, combined with the recent surge in support, positions her as a strong contender to retain the mayor’s office. Raman, a former ally of Bass and a councilmember, previously held a double‑digit lead in an earlier Berkeley poll, highlighting how quickly voter sentiment can shift in a dynamic city race.
Looking ahead
With less than a week left before voters head to the polls, both campaigns are expected to intensify outreach efforts. The poll underscores the importance of targeting the remaining undecided electorate, particularly those who have not yet aligned with either candidate. As the race tightens, Los Angeles residents will have a clear choice between the experienced incumbent and a challenger promising a new direction.
For more detailed polling methodology, the survey was conducted online in both English and Spanish, targeting likely voters based on standard demographic weighting. Voters and community members are encouraged to stay informed as the final days of the campaign unfold.
Original reporting: NBC4 Los Angeles — read the source article.
