In a new Fox News poll of likely Maine voters conducted October 16‑20, 2026, incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson are dead‑locked at 49% each. The survey, which interviewed 1,689 registered voters (including 1,514 likely voters), reflects a tightly contested race as both candidates vie for a sixth term for Collins and a potential flip for Jackson.
Poll methodology and sample
The poll was carried out by Beacon Research (a Democratic‑leaning firm) and Shaw & Company Research (Republican‑leaning). Respondents were selected randomly from a statewide voter file and contacted via landline (226), cellphone (1,035) or online text‑message invitation (428). The margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points for the full registered‑voter sample and ±2.5 points for likely voters. Subgroup margins are larger, and the poll notes that question wording and order can affect results.
Voter mood and President Trump’s rating
Overall voter sentiment in Maine appears negative. Only 12% of respondents say their family is better off financially than two years ago, and more than six in ten disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance – including two in ten Republicans. President Trump’s approval stands at 37% while 62% disapprove, with 54% strongly disapproving.
Key issues influencing the race
Concern about Collins’ alignment with President Trump is evident: 53% of voters say she votes with the President too much. By contrast, 46% worry that Jackson is too liberal. Enthusiasm gaps also favor the Democratic challenger – 79% of Democrats say they are extremely interested in the election versus 61% of Republicans.
Among likely voters, Jackson leads among those who are “certain” to vote by four points and among the one‑fifth of Mainers who have already cast a ballot by a decisive 40‑point margin. However, a slim majority of voters planning to vote on Election Day favor Collins by 12 points.
Demographic breakdown
Age, gender, education and geography shape preferences. Voters under 45 favor Collins by six points, while those 45 and older prefer Jackson by three. Men back Collins by four points; women support Jackson by five. Education is the sharpest divide: Mainers with a college degree pick Jackson by 23 points, whereas those without a degree favor Collins by 16 points. Rural voters lean toward Collins by seven points, while suburban voters choose Jackson by 18 points.
Party loyalty and independents
Party loyalty remains strong – nine in ten party faithful back their respective candidate. Among independents, Collins holds a 13‑point advantage. Both candidates enjoy high vote certainty, with 92% of Jackson supporters and 90% of Collins supporters saying they are sure they will vote.
Context and outlook
Collins, first elected roughly three decades ago, is the only GOP senator seeking re‑election from a state President Trump lost in 2024 by seven points. In 2020, Collins won by nearly nine points. Democrats view the Maine seat as essential to gaining control of the U.S. Senate, and 53% of voters say they prefer a Democratic‑led chamber versus 45% who favor a Republican‑led Senate.
While the poll shows a statistical tie, the enthusiasm advantage for Jackson and the high disapproval of President Trump could shape turnout dynamics. Both campaigns will need to mobilize their bases and persuade undecided voters as the November 5 election approaches.
Original reporting: Fox News (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
