Detroit‑based automakers are facing a tough third quarter, according to a new forecast from Cox Automotive. The analysis shows General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor Company likely to record the steepest declines in U.S. market share among the 13 manufacturers tracked.
Projected declines for the traditional Detroit trio
Ford’s vehicle sales are expected to drop 8.8% year‑to‑date through the end of September, which would reduce its market share to roughly 12.5%, nearly a full percentage point lower than a year ago. GM’s sales are projected to fall 6.2% over the same period, leaving the company with an estimated 16.7% share, down from 17.4% a year earlier. Together, the three historic Detroit manufacturers – GM, Ford and Stellantis – are forecast to hold about 36% of the U.S. market, the lowest share ever recorded for the group.
Fuel efficiency drives consumer choices
Analysts attribute the slide to a relative shortage of fuel‑efficient models in the GM and Ford lineups. Higher gasoline prices, spurred by the ongoing Iran conflict, have pushed buyers toward vehicles that can stretch each gallon farther.
Ford’s recent discontinuation of the Escape compact SUV, once one of its most fuel‑savvy offerings, has further narrowed its appeal. The company also faced reduced pickup‑truck production after a fire at an aluminum supplier limited output.
GM dealers have reported that some customers are switching to other brands because the company does not currently offer hybrid models, a segment that is gaining momentum.
Hybrid and electric‑assisted models gain ground
Brands with robust hybrid portfolios are faring better. Toyota, the industry leader in hybrid sales, is projected to post a 1.1% sales gain through the third quarter. Honda’s sales are expected to rise 5.6%.
South Korean manufacturers Hyundai and Kia, which together offer several hybrid options, are forecast to outsell Ford for the first time in any quarter. While Ford’s spokesperson noted that the two Korean firms are separate entities, the combined sales figures still surpass Ford’s year‑to‑date totals.
Overall market remains resilient
Despite the volatility, Cox forecasters have lifted their estimate for total U.S. vehicle sales in 2026 to 16.1 million, up from an earlier projection of 15.8 million. “The new‑vehicle market has actually held up surprisingly steady,” said Cox executive analyst Erin Keating.
These trends underscore the importance of offering fuel‑efficient and hybrid options to meet consumer demand in a high‑price environment. As the market evolves, traditional manufacturers may need to accelerate their hybrid and electric‑assisted vehicle programs to regain lost share.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
