Los Angeles – In a recent twist to the mayoral race, a poll posted by the little‑known firm Median Strategies showed incumbent Mayor Karen Bass ahead of councilmember Nithya Raman by about 12 points. The Bass campaign shared the numbers on social media, but the poll was later revealed to be entirely fabricated.
Poll origins and admission of fraud
Median Strategies, which had no prior public presence, posted three “polls” this month covering races in California, Wisconsin and Nevada. The company told the Los Angeles Times that the effort was a short‑term social experiment to see how unverified polling could spread online. No details were given about who was behind the project or its funding.
When the Los Angeles poll surfaced, the Bass campaign promoted it, citing coverage by multiple outlets. After the Associated Press and other news organizations flagged the poll as lacking basic methodological information, the campaign deleted the social‑media post and issued a statement that the poll had been reported by several news sites. Spokesman Alex Stack added that any bad‑faith attempts to influence elections should be investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.
Why the poll failed vetting
Major poll aggregators such as The New York Times, Real Clear Politics and FiftyPlusOne did not include the Median Strategies numbers because the release omitted essential details: who conducted the survey, the sampling method, the voter file source and the fielding vendor. Both outlets reached out to Median Strategies for clarification and received no response.
Will Davis, director of Election Data Analytics at The New York Times, noted that reputable pollsters always disclose methodology and sponsorship. Without that information, the poll could not be verified. Mary Radcliffe, head of research at FiftyPlusOne, echoed the concern, saying the Wisconsin poll’s methodology statement was missing key data, making it impossible to assess its credibility.
Broader implications for election information
Veteran Republican pollster Chris Wilson, now leading EyesOver, warned that the incident illustrates how easy it is to make invented numbers appear legitimate. He said campaigns and outside groups have strong incentives to amplify favorable data before verification.
The fake poll also briefly moved prediction‑market prices. On the Kalshi platform, a “yes” contract on Bass winning rose two cents within fifteen minutes of the poll’s release, and Polymarket saw a flurry of trades favoring Bass shortly after the tweet.
Calls for accountability
While the Median Strategies website has been taken down, the firm posted a statement that it had concluded its polling project and would not publish further results. It also claimed that no individual involved held or traded positions in any election‑related betting markets.
The episode underscores the importance of scrutinizing polling data, especially when it appears without transparent methodology. As more groups experiment with unvetted surveys, voters and campaigns alike must rely on established, independent pollsters to obtain reliable information.
Original reporting: Alexandria, VA News – WTOP News — read the source article.
