As wildfires continue to ravage parts of the United States, a new trend has emerged: betting on the outcome of these disasters. Platforms like Polymarket allow users to wager on the extent of wildfires, sparking concerns among experts that this could incentivize arson and exploit people’s fear.

Concerns Over Arson and Exploitation

Kaitlyn Trudeau, a California-based climate scientist, lost her grandfather’s home to the Eaton fire in Los Angeles last year. She expressed her concerns about the potential consequences of these betting markets, stating that it’s not just easy to start a fire, but now there’s potentially a financial incentive.

Experts like Ed Nordskog, a retired Los Angeles County Sheriff’s arson investigator, have noticed a connection between obsessive gambling and fire setting. He warned that anybody can set a wildfire, and the potential for financial gain could lead to an increase in arson cases.

Regulation and Guardrails

In response to these concerns, California Governor Gavin Newsom has strengthened a ban on insider trading by state officials on prediction market platforms. Representatives from Utah and California have also introduced bipartisan legislation to prohibit certain activities on these platforms.

While some proponents argue that prediction markets could provide valuable information for climate forecasting, others are skeptical about the benefits. The US Forest Service and the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection have stated that they do not rely on these markets for their fire modeling.

Original reporting: El Paso News (HLL/CB) — read the source article.