Farmers across Asia are facing significant challenges as dry weather conditions disrupt crop planting, with a powerful El Nino weather pattern expected to exacerbate the situation. From India’s grain-producing northwestern plains to Australia’s eastern wheat belt, and from Thailand’s rice fields to Indonesia’s palm oil plantations, the lack of rain and high temperatures are forcing farmers to reduce planting.
Impact on Asian Agriculture
El Nino-driven dryness is compounding issues for farmers already struggling with shortages of fertilizer and diesel, largely due to the ongoing conflict in Iran. Wheat prices have surged by about 20% since the start of 2026, driven by concerns over drought in key U.S. growing regions. Similarly, rice prices in major Southeast Asian export hubs have increased by around 15% over the past month due to rising production costs and fears of tighter supplies.
Chris Hyde, a U.S.-based meteorologist at SkyFi, noted that the El Nino impact begins in Southeast Asia, India, and Australia before affecting the Americas. High-resolution imagery from SkyFi has already shown early signs of drought across parts of Asia.
Regional Challenges
In India, the meteorological department has reduced its forecast for the monsoon season, which provides about 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. The delay in the monsoon’s onset and the possibility of below-normal rainfall are causing concerns for the timely sowing of summer crops such as rice, soybeans, and corn.
In Southeast Asia, the dry conditions are affecting rice and palm oil yields. Farmers in Thailand and the Philippines, who plant their main rice crops in June and July, are particularly worried. In Indonesia, areas like Java and northern Sumatra have experienced over ten days without rain, with only medium to low rainfall expected in June.
Economic Implications
Despite India’s substantial rice stockpile, traders are concerned that the country may soon view these stocks as critical assets and could impose export restrictions if monsoon problems persist. Meanwhile, in Australia, recent rains have allowed for late wheat sowing, but farmers remain cautious about the potential impact of El Nino in the coming months.
The Bureau of Meteorology predicts that many cropping areas in New South Wales and Queensland will receive significantly less rain over the next three months. John Lowe, a farmer in central New South Wales, reported that his cropping area is about 30% smaller than it could have been due to these conditions.
While El Nino is expected to be neutral for China and the Black Sea region, it may bring more rain to the Americas. However, Drew Lerner, an agricultural meteorologist, cautioned that El Nino does not necessarily correlate with above-normal rainfall in the U.S. during the summer.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
