For families planning Halloween treats this year, the candy aisle looks different. Chocolate now makes up 51.7% of U.S. confectionery spending, a noticeable drop from roughly two‑thirds of the market ten years ago. The shift reflects higher cocoa prices and manufacturers’ strategic responses.
West African cocoa harvest concerns
Ghana’s cocoa regulator warned that national production will fall by at least 16% in the 2026/27 season, citing El Niño‑related weather, swollen‑shoot disease, aging farms and illegal gold‑mining encroachment. The Western and Western North regions, which together supply more than half of Ghana’s cocoa, reported a low cherelle load—fewer young pods surviving to maturity. Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer, is also expected to see output dip by more than 10%.
Traders reacted quickly. New York cocoa futures jumped 7.4% in a single session to $5,490 per metric ton after the forecast was released. Earlier in the year, cocoa prices had fallen to about $3,300 a ton, down from a record above $12,000 in late 2024.
Manufacturers adapt to higher costs
Major producers such as Mondelēz International and Hershey have restructured supply chains and reformulated products to reduce cocoa exposure. World Bank data show cocoa prices bottomed at $3.24 per kilogram in March 2026 before climbing to $4.36 by June.
Hershey describes its approach as “adjusting price‑pack architecture,” meaning fewer pieces in the same‑size bag. Some brands have lowered cocoa percentages in bars and increased sugar content—changes that are invisible on the shelf but clear on ingredient panels.
Impact on shoppers and retailers
According to the USDA Economic Research Service, prices for sugar and sweets rose 7.4% between July 2025 and July 2026, with a modest 0.1% increase from June to July. The agency attributes most of the movement to candy and chewing gum, the CPI sub‑component that contains most chocolate candy. ERS forecasts a 7.1% price increase for the full 2026 calendar year.
Lindt raised prices 11.8% across its range and reported a 7.5% drop in chocolate sales volume in the first half of the year. Barry Callebaut, the largest industrial chocolate supplier, said global chocolate consumption fell 4.4% in the third quarter compared with a year earlier.
Non‑chocolate candy gains ground
Non‑chocolate candy’s market share has risen from one‑third of the confectionery market in 2015 to 40.9% in 2025, according to the National Confectioners Association. Gummies and chewy candies now lead across every generation surveyed, pushing traditional chocolate bars to a smaller shelf footprint.
Hershey’s CEO Kirk Tanner told investors that global cocoa supplies remain ample, pointing to healthier inventories and diversified sourcing. The company projects cocoa cost deflation in 2027 and expects a strong seasonal performance for Halloween.
What this means for families
Trick‑or‑treat bags will still contain chocolate, but there will be less of it per bag and more gummies alongside it. Home bakers are also adjusting recipes, using fewer chocolate chips and more butter‑or‑sugar‑based treats to stretch limited chocolate supplies.
Industry analysts project non‑chocolate candy sales will reach $27.8 billion across all channels by 2030, underscoring the lasting shift in consumer preferences.
Original reporting: KTBS 3 (Shreveport) — read the source article.
