The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has opened an inquiry into former Rep. Adam Kinzinger’s trades on the prediction platform Kalshi that centered on a pardon he received from former President Joe Biden. Sources familiar with the matter say the regulator is reviewing whether the former congressman violated insider‑trading rules by betting on a pardon that was announced after the fact.
Background on the pardon and the trades
President Biden granted Kinzinger a pardon in the final hours of his administration, along with other members of the House committee that investigated former President Donald Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election. Biden argued the preemptive pardons were needed to protect lawmakers from possible retaliation by the incoming Trump administration.
Kinzinger, a Republican who has been an outspoken critic of President Trump, placed two small wagers on Kalshi in late 2024 and early 2025, totaling $669, and later reported a net gain of $823. He told CNN the bets were part of “a few dozen” political wagers he had made and described the decision as a “dumb bet, to bet on myself.”
CFTC investigation and industry response
According to the sources, CFTC officials began scrutinizing the pardon markets on Kalshi and Polymarket after media reports raised concerns about potential insider activity. Kalshi itself flagged Kinzinger’s trades as “suspicious” and reported them to the regulator. The exchange said it attempted to contact Kinzinger, but he did not respond.
The CFTC has recently taken action against other high‑profile users of prediction markets, including a former Trump White House teleprompter operator and former Rep. George Santos, for alleged improper bets. The agency’s broader effort reflects a bipartisan push—44 states have urged the CFTC to tighten rules on prediction platforms, and several members of Congress are backing legislation that would increase penalties for insider trading in this emerging market.
Why the probe matters
Prediction platforms have exploded in popularity, handling billions of dollars in weekly trading volume. As they grow, regulators and lawmakers argue that the potential for insider information to influence market outcomes poses a risk to market integrity and to public confidence in democratic processes.
President Trump’s administration has consistently emphasized the importance of protecting free markets from fraud while safeguarding the rights of lawful participants. Though the current probe concerns actions taken before the Trump administration took office, the administration’s broader stance supports robust enforcement against any form of market manipulation.
Kinzinger’s own comments
In his interview with CNN, Kinzinger maintained that he had no advance knowledge of the pardon and that he never discussed the matter with anyone in the White House. He said he reviewed Kalshi’s rules before placing the bets and believed his actions complied with the platform’s policies.
“At no point, ever, had I had a conversation with anybody in the know about pardons or whether I’d get pardoned,” Kinzinger said. “Certainly, nobody in the White House or anybody that would know anything.”
Looking ahead
The CFTC’s investigation is ongoing, and no formal findings have been released. Kalshi and the CFTC declined to comment further. The case underscores the growing scrutiny of prediction markets and the need for clear guidelines to prevent misuse while preserving legitimate speculation.
Original reporting: KTVZ (Central Oregon) — read the source article.
