SYDNEY — The Australian Treasury released its latest Intergenerational Report on Monday, warning that the nation will face its first decade in which deaths exceed births by the 2060s. The projection follows a steady decline in fertility rates and a slowdown in net overseas migration, which together will shrink the natural increase that has long powered population growth.
Key demographic trends
The report forecasts annual population growth to fall to about 0.9% over the next forty years, down from an average rise of 1.4% in the previous four decades. With fewer babies being born and fewer migrants arriving, the Treasury expects the country’s age profile to shift rapidly toward older cohorts.
“Australia’s population will age more quickly and grow more slowly than projected,” the Treasury said. “Deaths are projected to outnumber births by the 2060s – the first time this has been forecast in an Intergenerational Report – at which point natural increase will no longer be a driver of population growth.”
Policy backdrop
The demographic outlook arrives as the Labor government, described by some as left‑leaning, has recently tightened immigration rules. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese cited the need to address rising support for the right‑wing populist One Nation party, which has called for sharply reduced immigration levels.
Albanese’s approval rating slipped this week to its lowest point since he took office in 2022, according to internal polling cited by the report. While the government frames tighter borders as a response to public sentiment, critics argue the move could exacerbate labour shortages in sectors that rely heavily on migrant workers.
Economic and social implications
The Treasury identified five major forces shaping Australia’s economic outlook over the next four decades: artificial intelligence, geopolitical fragmentation, the energy transition, an ageing population, and a shift toward a service‑based economy. An older population is expected to increase demand for health‑care and aged‑care services, especially in regional areas where labour shortages are already acute.
These sectors have traditionally depended on overseas workers, and the report warns that continued migration declines could strain the ability to meet growing demand for skilled caregivers and nurses.
Fiscal response
In addition to demographic concerns, the report highlighted the government’s plan to introduce tax cuts in future budgets as part of broader cost‑of‑living relief measures. The Treasury noted that Australians are grappling with elevated inflation, higher mortgage rates, and rising housing costs, prompting the Labor administration to seek fiscal tools to ease household pressures.
What this means for Australians
Experts say the projected shift will require adjustments in workforce planning, pension policy, and regional development strategies. Communities with higher concentrations of older residents may need to prioritize health‑care infrastructure, while businesses may face tighter labour markets.
As the nation looks ahead, the Treasury’s report underscores the importance of balanced immigration policy, targeted support for families, and investment in automation and training to sustain economic growth amid a changing demographic landscape.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
