Early voting in Texas is off to a historic start, with over 4.5 million ballots cast in the first seven days. According to Derek Ryan of Ryan Data and Research, Democrats now hold a 115,000‑vote advantage over Republicans among those who have already voted.
Record‑setting participation
Turnout this week is up more than 6 % compared with previous midterm cycles, and analysts estimate that as many as 10 million Texans could ultimately cast a ballot – a figure that would set a new state record.
How the numbers compare
At the same point in the 2022 midterms, Texas Republicans enjoyed a 400,000‑vote lead. The swing to a Democratic advantage marks the strongest position for the party in recent memory.
Ryan notes that the early surge is driven by a higher share of women voters, younger voters under 45, and Hispanic voters who are turning out at a rate roughly 3 % higher than four years ago. These trends are most evident in the state’s major metropolitan areas.
Republican response
State leaders, including Governor Greg Abbott, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, have been urged to hit the doors and mobilize their base. Ryan estimates that about 2 million reliable Republican primary voters have not yet cast a ballot, and their participation could determine whether the GOP can close the gap.
“If you’re a Republican, you need to be out there calling, knocking on doors, getting people to show up,” Ryan said, emphasizing the importance of grassroots outreach.
Uncertain voters
Another variable is the roughly 5 million Texans who are registered but have little or no history of voting. While they are eligible, they are considered unlikely to participate without targeted outreach.
Given the close early numbers, Ryan predicts a “very long night of waiting on election returns” on Election Day, as the final outcome may not become clear until all votes are counted.
What this means for voters
For Texans planning to vote, the early voting period remains open, and both parties are encouraging citizens to exercise their constitutional right to vote. The surge in participation underscores the importance of each ballot in what could be one of the most competitive statewide elections in a generation.
Original reporting: Richardson, TX News (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
