In a fresh BTG Pactual/Nexus survey of 2,000 Brazilian voters conducted from September 25‑27, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva widened his advantage in a first‑round scenario, moving to 42% of respondents compared with 37% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The poll, which carries a 2‑point margin of error, also simulated a second‑round contest, finding Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 44% – a gap that falls inside the statistical margin, indicating a still‑tight race.
First‑round numbers show modest gain for Lula
The latest poll reflects a modest uptick for the left‑leaning incumbent since the previous survey released on September 21, which recorded Lula at 40% and Bolsonaro at 37% in a first‑round context. While Lula’s support rose by two points, Bolsonaro’s share remained steady, suggesting the incumbent is consolidating additional voters without losing ground.
Runoff simulation remains within error range
When the poll models a runoff between the two front‑runners, Lula’s 46% versus Bolsonaro’s 44% sits squarely within the 2‑point margin of error. This means the simulated tie could easily shift either way once the actual vote is counted. The poll’s methodology notes that respondents were selected to reflect the broader electorate, but the margin underscores the uncertainty that still surrounds the upcoming October 4 first‑round election.
Other candidates lag far behind
Beyond the two leading figures, the survey shows a steep drop‑off for other contenders. Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado each attract about 5% of voter intention, while Renan Santos polls at 4%. None of these candidates approach the thresholds needed to force a runoff.
What comes next
If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes on October 4, Brazil will hold a runoff on October 25 between the top two vote‑getters. The BTG Pactual/Nexus poll suggests a competitive second round, but the margin of error leaves the outcome open.
Analysts note that Lula’s modest gain may reflect continued support for his administration’s social programs, while Bolsonaro’s base remains solid despite recent legal challenges. Both campaigns are expected to intensify outreach as the election draws nearer.
For Brazilian voters, the poll underscores the importance of turning out on election day, as the final results could hinge on a relatively small number of votes in a tightly contested race.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
