A historic super El Niño weather pattern is set to peak between November 2026 and January 2027, and the International Rescue Committee (IRC) says it could rapidly deteriorate food security across Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador. The warming of sea‑surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific, driven by weakened trade winds, typically lasts up to twelve months and can dramatically shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide.
Immediate humanitarian impact
The IRC warns that “poor rains” could foster drought conditions that push roughly 700,000 people in El Salvador into immediate need of emergency assistance. In the region’s Dry Corridor, El Niño‑driven drought has already devastated corn and bean crops, pushing tens of thousands of rural households deeper into food and water insecurity, according to Oxfam.
Broader regional risks
Beyond Central America, the IRC’s modelling shows that if El Niño combines with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, up to 2.6 million people in Somalia could face catastrophic flooding. At the same time, forecasts indicate widespread drought across Southern Africa early next year.
Economic ripple effects
Supply‑chain disruptions linked to El Niño are already influencing global food markets. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization notes that weather‑driven concerns are contributing to rising prices for staples such as sugar and vegetable oils. In Panama, JP Morgan expects the El Niño to force further vessel restrictions on the Panama Canal during the fourth quarter, with the Canal Authority projecting a 5 % decline in transits for 2027.
What the IRC is doing
The IRC is mobilising resources to prepare for the anticipated surge in need. Its emergency response plans focus on delivering food, water and agricultural inputs to the most vulnerable households, while also supporting local governments in strengthening climate‑resilient infrastructure.
Looking ahead
Experts stress that the severity of the upcoming El Niño will depend on how quickly governments, NGOs and the private sector can coordinate relief efforts and invest in climate‑adaptation measures. Monitoring of sea‑surface temperatures and rainfall patterns will continue throughout the peak period, providing critical data to guide response strategies.
As the super El Niño approaches, the IRC urges donors, policymakers and community leaders to prioritize assistance for the affected Central American nations, emphasizing that early action can mitigate the worst humanitarian outcomes.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
