By OBBM Network Editorial Staff

David Iverson

Did you notice that every county in Wyoming moved toward the Democratic column in the 2026 midterms? While the state still sent an all‑Republican congressional delegation to Washington, a deeper dive into the numbers reveals a 37‑point swing toward Democrats compared with the 2024 cycle.

What the Numbers Really Show

Iverson cites a recent article from the Casper Star‑Tribune – sarcastically dubbed the “Pravda on the Platte” – that claims all 23 Wyoming counties shifted toward Democrats compared with two years ago. The piece notes an average Democratic gain of 21 points across the state, but when Iverson compares that to the 2024 average margin of victory for contested legislative seats in Cheyenne – 16 points in favor of Republicans – the combined swing totals 37 points. In other words, while Republicans retained the top offices, the margin by which they won narrowed dramatically.

One concrete data point highlighted is the razor‑thin victory of Secretary of State Chuck Gray, who secured his U.S. House seat by the slimmest margin of any Republican candidate since Cynthia Lummis’s 2008 win. That narrow win underscores how the “blue wave” touched even the most secure Republican races in the Equality State.

The Role of In‑migration

Iverson points out that Wyoming’s demographic makeup has shifted: roughly 60 % of residents were born outside the state, leaving a 60‑40 split between newcomers and native Wyomings. He suggests that many of those newcomers may be bringing voting habits from more liberal states such as California or Colorado. The host observes, “the majority of people that live here are not like you and me and the lovely Christine that were born here,” emphasizing that this influx could be influencing the modest Democratic gains.

While Iverson stops short of declaring Wyoming a liberal state, he warns that the trend could have long‑term implications if the inflow of out‑of‑state voters continues unabated. The demographic shift, combined with the modest Democratic swing, may force Wyoming Republicans to recalibrate their messaging in future primaries.

Historical Context: Midterm Swings Aren’t New

The host places the 2026 results within a broader historical pattern, noting that midterm losses for the party holding the White House are commonplace. He references Ronald Reagan’s loss of 26 seats in 1982, Bill Clinton’s 54‑seat loss in 1994, and President Trump’s 41‑seat loss in 2018. Iverson remarks, “This is not new. This is just a reality of American politics.” By framing Wyoming’s modest shift as part of a national rhythm, he underscores that even entrenched red states can feel the ripple effects of a national Democratic surge.

He also contrasts the 2026 swing with prior cycles, highlighting that the Democratic surge in traditionally Republican states such as Kansas, South Carolina, Texas, Alaska, and Mississippi was more pronounced, yet Wyoming still felt a measurable impact.

Implications for Future Campaigns

Given that most Wyoming elections are effectively decided in the primary, Iverson argues that the real battleground will be intra‑party contests. He notes that in recent August primaries, Republican voters tended to select the less conservative candidate, a trend that could open the door for more moderate or even liberal‑leaning office‑holders if the electorate continues to diversify.

For activists and strategists, the takeaway is clear: building a robust grassroots network that engages both native Wyomings and newcomers will be essential. As Iverson puts it, “When you look at statewide data, the folks who moved to Wyoming and were not born here outnumber those folks who are Wyoming natives.”

Looking Ahead

The discussion concludes with a reminder that political tides are cyclical. While the 2026 results did not overturn Republican control of the state’s federal delegation, the data suggests a subtle but notable shift in voter sentiment. Whether this translates into tangible policy changes or altered campaign strategies remains to be seen, but the trend invites both parties to pay closer attention to Wyoming’s evolving electorate.

In a political landscape where the “blue wave” is often measured by marquee states, Wyoming’s 37‑point swing serves as a reminder that even the most reliably red states can experience meaningful change. As the next election cycle approaches, the conversation sparked by Iverson’s analysis will likely shape how candidates, parties, and voters navigate the state’s future political terrain.

The full episode of Cowboy State Politics is available on OBBM Network TV.