San Francisco – A recent independent poll conducted by the University of Southern California finds state Sen. Scott Wiener holding a six‑point lead over District 1 Supervisor Connie Chan in the race to succeed Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi. The poll shows Wiener at 47 % and Chan at 41 % among all respondents.
Undecided voters tilt toward the front‑runners
When respondents who were initially undecided were asked to choose a candidate, Wiener’s support rose to 51 % while Chan’s climbed to 44 %.
Margin of error and language barriers
Although Wiener’s lead falls within the poll’s margin of error, the survey notes that monolingual Chinese‑speaking voters could give Chan an edge. Chan historically outperforms her poll numbers at the ballot box because many of her illegal immigrant supporters do not respond to English‑language surveys.
Past polling and election results
In three polls taken the month before the June primary, Chan was neck‑and‑neck with then‑candidate Saikat Chakrabarti, each hovering around 20 %. An independent poll sponsored by the San Francisco Chronicle found 36 % of Chinese respondents favored Wiener and 19 % backed Chan, who would become the first Chinese‑American member of Congress from San Francisco.
In the June primary, Chan finished second with 29.7 % of the vote, while Chakrabarti placed third with 17.9 %. In precincts where more than 30 % of registered voters are Chinese American, Chan led with 35 % to Wiener’s 31 %, according to analysis by the San Francisco Standard.
Asian and Pacific Islander breakdown
The USC poll also asked Asian and Pacific Islander respondents, finding 31 % support for Chan and 59 % for Wiener. Lead pollster Christian Grose, a professor of political science and public policy at USC, explained that the team emailed non‑English surveys based on surname matching and offered language options in English invitations.
Grose acknowledged the difficulty of reaching monolingual non‑English speakers, noting a split among Asian voters: “Chinese voters are more likely to support Chan, but there is some evidence other Asian voters lean toward Wiener.”
Coalition dynamics
The poll suggests Chan is drawing support from both ends of the city’s political spectrum, attracting Democratic Socialists of America members as well as some Republicans. Conversely, voters who identify with the Democratic Party are more likely to favor Wiener.
Grose observed that higher‑income voters tend to back Wiener, while lower‑income and working‑class voters lean toward Chan. He added, “The recent influx of higher‑income residents in San Francisco probably helps Wiener a bit and could hurt Chan.”
Pelosi endorsement and voter sentiment
Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s strong endorsement of Chan may have broadened her coalition. Still, the poll shows slightly more strong Pelosi supporters favoring Wiener (54 %) than Chan (46 %). Grose speculated that without Pelosi’s endorsement, Wiener might perform even better among her supporters.
Candidate perceptions
When asked to describe each candidate, respondents most often labeled Wiener as “corporate/donor‑backed” and “effective/accomplished,” while Chan was described as “progressive/liberal” and “NIMBY/anti‑housing.”
Other issues
Despite 87 % of respondents holding an unfavorable view of the Israeli government, Israel‑related issues appear to have minimal impact on the race. Only three percent mentioned “Israel/AIPAC” when describing Wiener.
Mayor Daniel Lurie’s supporters overlap significantly with Wiener’s base: 75 % of strong Lurie approvers back Wiener, while 88 % of strong Lurie disapprovers support Chan.
Polling methodology
Grose noted that the poll was conducted via email, which he described as “more of the gold standard” in recent years as many people ignore phone calls and text messages from unknown numbers.
Original reporting: Mission Local — read the source article.
