By OBBM Network Editorial Staff

Travis Spencer

Interest rates are climbing faster than most Americans expected, and the 10‑year Treasury is nearing 5.3%. In a fiery monologue, Travis Spencer warns that the bond market’s volatility could spell trouble for homeowners, landlords, and anyone relying on mortgage financing.

Bond Market Chaos and the Rise of Treasury Yields

Spencer describes the current environment as “interest rates absolutely explode,” with the 10‑year Treasury “skyrocketing up… almost hitting 5.3%, sitting now at 5.28%.” He argues that the government has “completely lost control of the bond market” while still attempting to prop up mortgage rates through quantitative easing via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The result, he says, is an “artificially lowered interest rate” that masks underlying volatility.

According to Spencer, traditional safe‑haven behavior is breaking down: “people are running away, at least from the longer end yield, the 10‑year treasury.” He attributes the sell‑off to massive margin calls triggered by derivatives positions, forcing investors to liquidate metals and other assets for cash.

Is Investing in Treasuries Still Safe?

When asked whether U.S. Treasuries remain a safe investment, Spencer offers a nuanced answer. “In theory, yes, if you can trade around it,” he says, noting that most investors lack the sophistication to navigate the derivatives market. For the average person, he suggests “cash in a bank, which if it’s backed by U.S. Treasury on a short‑term basis, probably nothing wrong with it.”

He also references a proprietary “bond credibility chain XLSX” he built to assess the “true value of these bonds,” emphasizing that long‑term valuations must consider the balance between demand (X) and supply (Y). Without that balance, the perceived safety of Treasuries erodes.

Real‑Estate Implications: From Restaurants to Residential Properties

Spencer draws a parallel between bond risk and real‑estate operations. He asks, “If you own a restaurant and can hedge rising food costs, is the restaurant a safe bet?” The answer hinges on hedging ability, he explains, mirroring the need for investors to hedge bond exposure. He warns that rising property taxes—up more than 100% in the past five to six years—undermine the benefits of recent tax cuts for seniors and small business owners.

The episode also highlights the Trump administration’s deregulatory agenda, citing “full expensing for equipment, factories, and ag structures” as a catalyst for a construction and manufacturing boom. Yet Spencer cautions that without addressing the “compound‑cumulative debt” that has outpaced economic growth for four decades, these gains may prove short‑lived.

The Role of Government: Treasury, Fed, and the Trump Administration

Spencer and his guest, Scott Bessent, debate whether the Treasury and the Federal Reserve are “on the same team.” Spencer asserts that the Treasury is the “printer” that supplies cash at the Fed’s demand, underscoring the intertwined nature of fiscal and monetary policy. He criticizes the Federal Reserve’s long‑standing impact on the dollar, claiming it has “devalued… by roughly 97 percent.”

He also credits the Trump administration for “right‑sizing” the federal workforce, noting a reduction of 300,000 jobs and the creation of “a million private‑sector jobs” this year. According to Spencer, these moves reflect a shift from government‑driven growth to private‑enterprise‑driven prosperity.

What This Means for Main Street

The central question Spencer poses is whether Main Street can finally “make money again, adjusted for inflation.” He answers with a sober “no and no,” pointing to the twin pressures of soaring property taxes and a debt burden that outpaces growth. While the administration’s tax reforms—no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, reduced taxes on Social Security—provide relief for many, they do not fully offset the fiscal strain caused by rising local taxes.

Spencer concludes that without a realistic appraisal of the debt ceiling and a strategy to align X (demand) with Y (supply), even the most aggressive deregulation and tax cuts will fall short of delivering sustainable prosperity for everyday Americans.

The full episode of Real Estate Mindset is available on OBBM Network TV.