North Carolina’s iconic fall foliage is running behind schedule after one of the warmest Septembers on record. The delay varies by region: mountain communities could see peak color a week to ten days later than usual, while the Triangle’s trees are already shedding leaves because of heat and drought.
Mountain outlook
Howard Neufeld, a professor emeritus at Appalachian State University and the state’s self‑styled “Fall Color Guy,” warned that the mountains are still largely green. From the newly renovated overlook at Howard Knob Park above Boone—about 4,000 feet in elevation—he expected to see the first signs of autumn, but most trees remain verdant.
Neufeld estimates that each degree September temperature rises above average postpones peak color by roughly two days. This September, Boone’s highs have been four to six degrees above normal, suggesting a delay of at least a week, possibly ten days, unless a cold snap arrives.
Historical comparisons support the projection. In both 2018 and 2019, unusually warm Septembers pushed Boone’s peak from the typical Oct. 15 window to around Oct. 28. Neufeld notes that from 2008‑2016, almost every season peaked between Oct. 10 and Oct. 20, but since 2017 the timing has ranged from on‑schedule to two weeks late, making predictions more difficult.
He adds that the mountains have received enough rain to avoid the severe tree stress seen farther east, so a strong display remains possible if cooler weather returns. “It’s always a good year in the mountains,” Neufeld said. “If it stays warm, we’ll probably be in the five or six range,” rating the season on a ten‑point scale.
Triangle challenges
In the Raleigh‑Durham area, the outlook is less optimistic. WRAL meteorologist Kat Campbell explained that drought‑stressed trees are already dropping leaves, and the region’s typical peak color in the first week of November may be muted.
RDU recorded its highest number of 90‑degree days in September, making it the third‑warmest September on record for the airport. Overnight temperatures also ranked among the warmest for any September, eliminating the cool‑night, warm‑day pattern that fuels vivid reds.
“We haven’t had that,” Campbell said of the ideal conditions. “We’ve had hot, sunny afternoons and pretty warm nights as well.” The Triangle also received less than half its normal September rainfall, further stressing the canopy.
Why heat dulls the reds
Leaves contain yellow and orange pigments hidden beneath green chlorophyll. As chlorophyll breaks down in the fall, those colors emerge. Trees also produce red anthocyanin pigments, which require sugars generated during sunny days and stored for use on cool nights.
Warm nights increase respiration, burning more sugars and leaving fewer to create anthocyanins. The result is a duller, less vibrant display, Neufeld explained.
Tracking the season
Neufeld invites residents to follow real‑time conditions on his interactive map at FallColorGuy.org. The tool adjusts estimated peak dates using current weather, elevation, and latitude.
In a typical year, color begins at the highest elevations and moves roughly 1,000 feet downhill each week, reaching the foothills and Piedmont by late October or early November, then the coast by Thanksgiving.
Whether the season ultimately delivers the classic crimson and gold that draws tourists and locals alike will depend on October’s weather pattern. A stretch of daytime highs in the 40s‑50s paired with nighttime lows in the 30s‑low 40s could accelerate the change, Neufeld said.
Original reporting: WRAL Raleigh — read the source article.
