Extreme heat from this year’s “super‑El Niño” could result in as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide over the six‑month period ending in February 2027, according to a new report from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.
Heat‑related mortality spikes expected
The lab projects a 44% increase in the number of extremely hot days compared with normal years. The researchers identified Nigeria as the country likely to suffer the most heat‑related fatalities – an estimated 31,400 deaths – followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600.
In Africa’s Sahel region, which includes Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Sudan, the study estimates an additional 66,800 deaths during the same period. Southeast Asian nations are also vulnerable: the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia together could see roughly 19,400 extra deaths.
Potential for even higher toll
The report warns that if the El Niño persists into 2027, the death toll could climb further. Regions of the northern hemisphere such as India and Pakistan, which face intense summer heat, are highlighted as especially at risk.
“This report allows decision makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months,” said Michael Greenstone, an economist at the University of Chicago and co‑founder of the Climate Impact Lab.
Call for targeted emergency response
Climate Impact Lab described the current El Niño as a “postcard from the future,” delivering temperatures that are expected to become normal only in a few decades. The researchers recommend that emergency response efforts focus on the high‑priority regions identified in the study to mitigate heat‑related mortality.
While the findings underscore a looming public‑health crisis, they also provide a roadmap for governments, NGOs and community leaders to allocate resources, strengthen heat‑wave preparedness plans, and protect the most vulnerable populations.
Global context
El Niño events have historically disrupted weather patterns worldwide, affecting agriculture, water supplies and health outcomes. This super‑El Niño appears to be unusually strong, amplifying the risk of heat‑related deaths far beyond typical seasonal variations.
Stakeholders are urged to monitor the evolving climate data closely and to implement heat‑mitigation strategies such as early warning systems, cooling centers, and public‑health advisories, especially in the identified hotspots.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
