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Aug 26, 2026
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Study Finds Waist Size, Not BMI, Predicts Mortality Risk in Seniors

A recent study published in the Journal of the American Geriatrics Society examined nearly 7,000 Americans aged 65 and older over up to 14 years. Researchers found that a larger waist circumference was associated with a higher risk of early death, while a body‑mass‑index (BMI) in the overweight range (25‑29.9) was linked to a lower mortality risk.

Key findings

Men with a waist measurement above 40 inches (101.6 cm) and women with a waist above 35 inches (89 cm) faced a 24% higher chance of dying early, even after accounting for BMI. In contrast, men classified as overweight by BMI enjoyed a 46% lower risk of death compared with those in the normal BMI range, and women in the same BMI category saw a 27% reduction.

Class I and II obesity (BMI 30‑<40) did not show a statistically significant difference in mortality for women, and class III obesity (BMI ≥ 40) showed no clear mortality benefit for either gender.

Why BMI may be misleading for older adults

BMI is calculated from height and weight, but it does not distinguish muscle from fat. As people age, they often lose muscle mass and height, and fat may shift to the abdomen. Two seniors of identical height and weight can have very different body compositions—one may retain lean muscle, while the other carries more fat—yet both receive the same BMI rating.

Because older adults naturally lose muscle, a higher BMI can sometimes reflect preserved lean mass, which is protective. Conversely, a “normal” BMI might mask loss of muscle and an increase in hidden abdominal fat.

Visceral fat and waist circumference

Visceral fat, the deep‑lying fat surrounding internal organs, drives inflammation, insulin resistance, and higher rates of heart disease and diabetes. Measuring waist circumference offers a simple way for seniors and their physicians to gauge this risk without specialized equipment.

To measure correctly, wrap a tape measure around the abdomen between the bottom of the ribs and the top of the hips, keeping it snug but not compressing the skin. Tracking changes over time can alert individuals to increasing abdominal fat even if their weight stays steady.

Underweight seniors face higher risk

The study also found that seniors who were underweight had nearly double the risk of early death. Low weight often signals frailty and loss of muscle strength, making everyday activities harder and increasing fall risk. However, the researchers caution that being underweight may be a symptom of underlying disease rather than a direct cause of mortality.

Practical advice for seniors

Health professionals recommend focusing on overall function rather than a single number on the scale. Seniors should aim to stay physically active, maintain muscle strength through strength‑training exercises, and ensure adequate protein intake. Monitoring waist size, blood pressure, blood sugar, cholesterol, and overall mobility provides a fuller picture of health.

If an older adult notices an expanding waistline or unexplained weight loss, a conversation with a healthcare provider is advisable. Together, they can assess body composition, set realistic activity goals, and develop a nutrition plan that supports both muscle preservation and overall well‑being.


Original reporting: KRDO (Colorado Springs metro) — read the source article.

OBBM Network Editorial Staff

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Editorial team behind OBBM Network — independent, hyper-local journalism syndicated through HyperLocalLoop and OBBM Network TV.

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