In April 2025, the Nevada‑based nonprofit Election Truth Alliance (ETA) sought to challenge the 2024 presidential results, focusing on Pennsylvania. The group partnered with University of Michigan political scientist Walter Mebane, a leading expert in election forensics.
ETA’s collaboration with Mebane
Mebane, though skeptical of the group’s name, agreed to examine the data for his research. By early May he produced a working paper estimating that potentially fraudulent votes exceeded President Trump’s margin of victory in Pennsylvania. He noted the findings could also stem from non‑fraudulent factors.
ETA’s response and legal actions
ETA described the work as a collaboration confirming its own concerns. The group used the analysis to urge hand‑count audits, filing a lawsuit in November 2025 against Pennsylvania’s Secretary of the Commonwealth and three counties, seeking physical ballot recounts. Similar letters have been sent to officials in at least six other states.
Expert criticism
Ten election and statistics experts consulted by Votebeat said they doubt the model’s ability to reliably detect fraud. Stanford scholar Justin Grimmer warned that giving the analysis to a partisan‑leaning group gives it “unusual weight” and likened it to “handing someone a stick of dynamite.”
Broader context
Claims of election fraud have become a regular feature of American politics since 2020, often blending data with strong partisan emotions. While ETA presents itself as nonpartisan, its founders—three individuals who met on Reddit after the 2024 election—have raised over $422,000 in 2025 to fund their activities, including merchandise sales.
The group continues to promote Mebane’s findings, extending claims of irregularities to other states such as North Carolina and California, though courts have so far dismissed their lawsuits. The debate highlights the challenges of using statistical models to substantiate election‑integrity claims.
Original reporting: KEYT (Ventura/Santa Barbara) — read the source article.
