South Korea’s export outlook remains robust as a Reuters poll of 18 economists forecasts a 62.0% year‑over‑year increase for September. The surge is anchored in solid demand for AI‑related semiconductor chips, marking the 16th consecutive month of export growth.
AI chip demand fuels record‑breaking sales
In the first 20 days of September, before the Chuseok holidays, exports jumped 78.3% to a record level, with semiconductor sales soaring 259.4%. When measured on a per‑working‑day basis, exports were up an average of 89.8%.
Calendar effects moderate headline growth
September featured only 21.5 working days, down from 24 days a year earlier, due to the Chuseok holidays falling in September this year and in October last year. Analysts note that this calendar effect likely skews the headline figure, making the growth rate the slowest in four months despite strong underlying demand.
Historical context and future outlook
South Korean exports have risen steadily since June 2025, riding the global AI investment boom, and have posted double‑digit annual growth rates since December. The peak growth rate of 70.4% was recorded in June, the strongest pace in nearly half a century.
Economist An Ki‑tae of NH Investment Securities said, “The boom in semiconductor exports will persist as increasing trends in AI hyper‑scaler investments continue.”
Trade balance and imports
Imports are also projected to rise, with a 21.5% increase expected for September, following a 22.4% rise in August. The median forecast anticipates a record monthly trade surplus of $38.15 billion, up from $34.79 billion in August.
South Korea is scheduled to release its official trade figures on Thursday, October 1, at 9 a.m. GMT.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
