Rapid City – A Mason‑Dixon poll commissioned by News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota surveyed 500 likely voters from October 12‑14. The poll shows Republican state Rep. Heather Baxter of Rapid City narrowly ahead of Democrat Terrence Davis, with a sizable portion of the electorate still undecided.
Candidate backgrounds
Heather Baxter, a member of the South Dakota Freedom Caucus, has championed lower taxes, reduced state spending, and election reform. She has called for hand‑counting ballots and says she “echoes President Donald Trump’s concerns” about election integrity. Baxter also promotes a new Department of Government Efficiency (SD DOGE) to cut red tape and make state government more responsive to everyday South Dakotans.
Terrence Davis, a former state trooper in Tennessee and South Dakota, was selected as the Democratic nominee at the June party convention. He works for East River Legal Services in Sioux Falls and is pursuing a doctoral degree in law and public policy through Liberty University.
Endorsements and voter sentiment
Current Secretary of State Monae Johnson, who lost to Baxter in the June Republican primary, endorsed Davis in September, an unusual move that may be influencing voter awareness. Both candidates suffer from low name‑recognition numbers, according to the poll.
Julia Hellwege, associate professor of political science at the University of South Dakota, noted that the low‑turnout nature of the race could favor Republicans, who have stronger registration numbers. She warned that many voters may skip the race entirely, which could benefit the GOP despite the close numbers.
Demographic insights
Terrence Davis performed better among the youngest and oldest voters compared with other Democratic candidates in statewide contests. Jon Schaff, professor of government at Northern State University, said this pattern could signal a need for Republicans to adjust their outreach strategy, especially among younger voters who are less likely to identify as Republican.
Other constitutional offices on the ballot
The November 3 general election will also feature races for attorney general, treasurer, auditor, and commissioner of school and public lands. Notable candidates include:
- Lance Russell (R) – running unopposed for attorney general after the Democratic Party did not field a candidate.
- Melissa Hull (R) – Treasury manager from Philip, raising $24,680 for her campaign.
- Margaret Kuipers (D) – former EMS association treasurer, raising nearly $8,900.
- Catherine Barranco (R) – Sioux Falls economist and former president of the South Dakota Federation of Republican Women, raising $52,200.
- Tom Cool (D) – former Democratic nominee for auditor in 2018 and secretary of state in 2022, raising $4,350.
- Brock Greenfield (R) – incumbent commissioner of school and public lands, raising $9,200.
- Raeann Mettler (D) – former Black Hills State University professor, raising almost $11,500.
- Don Haggar (R) – former state House speaker pro tem, raising $43,750.
- Frank Kloucek (D) – longtime former state legislator, raising nearly $40,000.
Poll methodology
Mason‑Dixon used random selection from a telephone‑matched state voter registration list that included both landline and cellphone numbers. All respondents said they were likely to vote in the November general election. The poll’s margin of error is ±4.5 percentage points.
What voters should watch
With the race still tight and many voters undecided, both campaigns are likely to intensify outreach in the weeks leading up to Election Day. Voters are encouraged to review each candidate’s platform, especially on election administration reforms and government efficiency, before casting their ballots.
Original reporting: KOTA (Gray) – local — read the source article.
