NOAA confirmed that the Atlantic hurricane season has reached a historic delay: after more than half the season has passed, not a single hurricane has formed. Five named tropical storms have developed, but none have intensified into a hurricane, marking the latest first hurricane date on record – September 11.

El Niño’s Role in the Slow Start

The agency attributes the subdued Atlantic activity to the ongoing El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño, defined by sea‑surface temperature anomalies exceeding 0.5 °C for five consecutive three‑month periods, is currently classified as “very strong” after the weekly temperature anomaly reached 2 °C. This warm‑water pattern typically suppresses Atlantic storm formation while enhancing activity in the eastern Pacific.

NOAA Forecasts Remain Consistent

NOAA’s seasonal outlook, issued earlier this year, predicted a 75 % chance of below‑normal activity for the Atlantic. The agency now projects between seven and 13 named storms, with two to six of those potentially becoming hurricanes and zero to two major hurricanes. By contrast, the long‑term average for the Atlantic season includes 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Pacific Season Shows the Flip Side

While the Atlantic remains quiet, the eastern Pacific is experiencing heightened storm development. NOAA expects an above‑average season of 15 to 22 named storms, and to date 14 storms have already formed, including four hurricanes. Two of those – Hurricane Genevieve and Hurricane Karina – reached major‑hurricane status, and a third, Hurricane Lowell, intensified to a Category 5 hurricane in the central Pacific.

Historical Context

The last time a “very strong” El Niño occurred, the Pacific recorded a rare trio of simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes. Such patterns illustrate how El Niño can dramatically shift tropical‑cyclone activity between the two ocean basins.

What Residents Should Expect

Even with the delayed start, the peak of the Atlantic season remains around September 10, according to NOAA. Residents in coastal states should continue to monitor forecasts, maintain preparedness plans, and stay informed about any rapid changes in storm intensity. The lack of hurricanes so far does not eliminate the risk of a sudden intensification later in the season.

Looking Ahead

Forecasters will watch the El Niño’s strength closely, as any weakening could allow Atlantic conditions to become more favorable for hurricane development. Conversely, a sustained strong El Niño would likely keep the Atlantic relatively quiet while the Pacific continues to see more frequent and stronger storms.

Original reporting: 40/29 / KHBS (NW Arkansas) — read the source article.