CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten noted that surveys showed substantial misses across back-to-back Great Lakes battleground contests. Enten explained that the polling discrepancies appear linked to age demographics, with younger voters underrepresented in actual election turnout.
Polling Discrepancies
Enten suggested that if polling samples consistently overrepresent younger demographics who turn out at lower rates on Election Day, the data may present an inaccurate picture of broader political trends. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated state Representative Francesca Hong in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, despite pre-election polls showing Hong leading by roughly 20 percentage points.
Enten also discussed local campaign dynamics that may have driven late shifts among undecided voters in Wisconsin, including late-breaking media coverage regarding Hong’s past comments criticizing Thanksgiving. Enten cited data indicating that only 8% of Americans report not celebrating Thanksgiving, arguing that holding deeply unpopular cultural positions can damage a candidate’s standing late in a race.
Original reporting: Tampa Free Press — read the source article.
