The Center Square Voters’ Voice poll released on August 12‑16 indicates that Vice President JD Vance is the clear front‑runner among conservative voters for the 2028 Republican presidential primary. Forty‑one percent of the 930 registered Republicans and 269 right‑leaning independents surveyed said they would vote for Vance if the primary were held today.
Poll methodology and timeline
The survey was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights in partnership with The Center Square. Participants were recruited through an opt‑in online panel and text‑to‑web cell phone messages. The weighted sample reflects a national cross‑section of conservative voters, and the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.0 percent.
Vance’s performance compared to other potential candidates
Vance’s 41 percent support marks his strongest showing in the four Center Square polls conducted since October 2024. Earlier polls recorded 38 percent in the fall of 2025, a slight dip to 36 percent in March 2026 after additional names entered the field, and a steady 36 percent in June when Donald Trump Jr. withdrew his candidacy.
Former Secretary of State Marco Rubio emerged as the only other candidate to reach double‑digit support, rising from 9 percent in March to 17 percent in June and edging to 18 percent in August. Rubio’s strongest backing came from voters aged 65 and older (30 percent) and Hispanic and Latino voters (24 percent), though he remained behind Vance in every demographic.
Demographic breakdown of Vance’s support
Vance’s appeal was broadly consistent across gender, age and education levels. He garnered 41 percent of women and 40 percent of men, and his support ranged from 37 percent among the youngest voters (ages 18‑29) to 42 percent among older age groups. Among voters with a bachelor’s degree, Vance received 44 percent support; his backing among those with postgraduate education was 37 percent, and 38 percent among respondents with only a high school diploma.
Racial differences were the most pronounced. White voters gave Vance 43 percent support, while Hispanic and Latino voters offered 31 percent, Black voters 36 percent, and those identifying as “Other” 34 percent.
Regional trends
Geographically, Vance performed best among rural voters (46 percent), supporters of former President Donald Trump (45 percent), and respondents from the Midwest (46 percent). The Northeast also showed strong backing at 45 percent.
Context within the broader conservative field
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic counterpart, continues to lead among Democratic voters in Center Square polling, but her support patterns differ. Harris performed strongest with younger and Black voters and held a slight edge among women. In contrast, Vance’s support was evenly split between men and women and showed little variation across age groups.
The poll’s findings suggest that Vance has solidified his position as the preferred conservative choice heading into the 2028 election cycle, outpacing all other potential Republican contenders at the national level.
Original reporting: KTBS 3 (Shreveport) — read the source article.
